American Airlines Group Inc
Q4 2025 Earnings
Market Reaction
S&P 500 over the same 30 days: −1.37%.
Did AAL Beat Earnings? Q4 2025 Results
American Airlines Group delivered a sharply disappointing fourth quarter, posting adjusted diluted EPS of $0.16 against a consensus estimate of $0.35, a miss of 54.29%, even as the carrier set a record with $14.00 billion in Q4 revenue, up 2.5% year over year. The central drag on profitability was a surge in operating expenses, which climbed 8.2% to $13.55 billion, driven by higher fuel costs, salaries, and regional expenses, pushing Q4 operating income down 60.2% to $451.00 million and GAAP net income to just $99.00 million versus $590.00 million in the year-ago period. A government shutdown that weighed an estimated $325.00 million on results added to the pressure, compressing domestic passenger unit revenue by 2.5%. With union leaders publicly questioning CEO Robert Isom's leadership amid the airline's underperformance relative to peers, management is leaning heavily on a recovery narrative for 2026, guiding full-year adjusted EPS of $1.70 to $2.70 and free cash flow exceeding $2.00 billion, while targeting total debt reduction below $35.00 billion ahead of schedule.
- Record Q4 revenue despite $325 million government shutdown impact
- Premium product revenue outperforming main cabin year over year
- Atlantic passenger revenue grew 7.5% year over year in Q4
- Pacific passenger revenue grew 8.3% year over year in Q4
- Co-branded credit card spending increased 8% year over year in 2025
- AAdvantage enrollments grew 7% year over year to record annual high
- Total operating expenses increased 8.2% year over year in Q4
“American Airlines is positioned for significant upside in 2026 and beyond. We have built a strong foundation, and we look forward to taking advantage of the investments we have made in our customer experience, network, fleet, partnerships and loyalty program. The strategy we have in place will put American in the right position as we celebrate our centennial and embark on our next 100 years as a premium global airline.”
American Airlines Group CEO, on the earnings call
Forward Guidance & Outlook
American Airlines expects FY 2026 adjusted EPS of $1.70 to $2.70, representing nearly $2.00 of improvement versus 2025 at the midpoint. The company expects free cash flow exceeding $2 billion in 2026 and anticipates reducing total debt below $35 billion, a year ahead of its original schedule. For Q1 2026, the company guides total revenue growth of 7.0%-10.0% year over year with capacity (ASMs) up 3.0%-5.0%, and adjusted loss per diluted share of ($0.10) to ($0.50). Q1 guidance incorporates the impact of Winter Storm Fern, which caused over 9,000 flight cancellations and is estimated to reduce Q1 capacity by approximately 1.5 points, negatively impact revenue by $150-$200 million, and increase CASM-ex by approximately 1.5 points. Systemwide revenue intakes for the first three weeks of 2026 are up double digits year over year. The full-year tax rate is expected to be 25% and total adjusted nonoperating expense approximately $1.25 billion. Capital expenditures are expected to be approximately $4.0-$4.5 billion with 55 new aircraft deliveries in 2026.
AAL YoY Financials
AAL Revenue by Segment
AAL Revenue by Geography
Figures from SEC filings and company reports. Not investment advice.