Alaska Air Group Inc
Q4 2025 Earnings
Market Reaction
S&P 500 over the same 30 days: +0.57%.
Did ALK Beat Earnings? Q4 2025 Results
Alaska Air Group posted a sharp earnings beat in Q4 2025, with adjusted EPS of $0.43 clearing the $0.11 consensus estimate by 290.91%, even as revenue of $3.63 billion came in just a hair below the $3.64 billion forecast despite growing 2.8% year over year. The outperformance was driven roughly equally by better-than-expected non-fuel cost control and a favorable combination of lower December fuel costs and a reduced effective tax rate, with CASMex rising only 1.3% against prior guidance of approximately 3%. GAAP net income, however, fell to $21.00 million, or $0.18 per share, compared with $71.00 million, or $0.55 per share, in Q4 2024, reflecting integration-related costs tied to the Hawaiian Airlines combination. The quarter also brought a major Boeing fleet order and a unified FAA operating certificate with Hawaiian, reinforcing management's confidence in the Alaska Accelerate strategy. Looking ahead, the company guided full-year 2026 adjusted EPS of $3.50 to $6.50, with early Q1 corporate bookings running up 20% year over year signaling strengthening demand.
- Premium revenue increased 7% year-over-year, now representing 36% of total revenue
- Loyalty revenue increased 12% year-over-year
- Cargo revenue increased 22% year-over-year
- Corporate travel grew 9% year-over-year in Q4, a 2-point sequential improvement from Q3
- CASMex increased only 1.3% year-over-year, better than ~3% guidance, driven by cost management focus
- Commercial initiatives and synergies remained on track for the fourth consecutive quarter
- Record credit card acquisitions, with nearly one-fourth of Q4 signups for new premium credit card
“We feel momentum accelerating in 2026 as the Alaska-Hawaiian Airlines combination gains full strength. The people across our airlines delivered through a transformational year that set us up to win: an expanding global network, premium travel experiences delivered with care, and Atmos Rewards elevating our 11-year streak as the No. 1 airline loyalty program. Our model is positioned for where travelers are headed, and we're ready to compete as one of four global U.S. airlines.”
Alaska Air Group CEO, on the earnings call
Forward Guidance & Outlook
For Q1 2026, the company expects capacity growth of 1% to 2% year-over-year, with adjusted EPS of ($1.50) to ($0.50) and an estimated adjusted tax rate of 29%. For full year 2026, capacity growth is expected at 2% to 3%, adjusted EPS of $3.50 to $6.50, capital expenditures of approximately $1.4 billion to $1.5 billion, and an adjusted tax rate of 26% to 27%. The wide guidance range reflects macroeconomic uncertainty; the high end requires sustained macroeconomic recovery and stabilized fuel prices. Early January 2026 bookings have inflected positive with several of the highest booking days in the company's history, and managed corporate revenues are up 20% year-over-year for Q1. The company targets $10 EPS by 2027 enabled by $1 billion in incremental profit through its Alaska Accelerate strategy.
ALK YoY Financials
ALK Revenue by Segment
Figures from SEC filings and company reports. Not investment advice.