Carrier Global Corp
Q4 2025 Earnings
Market Reaction
S&P 500 over the same 30 days: −0.06%.
Did CARR Beat Earnings? Q4 2025 Results
Carrier Global closed out 2025 on a disappointing note, missing Wall Street's expectations on both the top and bottom lines as persistent weakness in its residential and light commercial businesses overwhelmed strength elsewhere. The company posted Q4 adjusted EPS of $0.34, falling short of the $0.36 consensus estimate by 5.56%, while revenue of $4.84 billion trailed expectations by 4.41% and declined 6% year-over-year. The sharpest pain came from Climate Solutions Americas, where residential volumes collapsed 38% and light commercial dropped 20%, sending segment operating margins down nearly 990 basis points to 8.7% and compressing consolidated results broadly. The silver lining was commercial HVAC, where orders surged nearly 50% on the back of data center wins — a trend that has management guiding confidently toward a sixth consecutive year of double-digit growth in 2026. For the full year ahead, Carrier is targeting sales of approximately $22 billion and adjusted EPS of roughly $2.80, while <a href="https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/02/14/carrier-globals-quiet-dividend-strategy-deserves-attention/">returning capital to shareholders</a> through approximately $1.5 billion in planned buybacks.
- Global commercial HVAC orders up nearly 50% in Q4, driven by data center wins
- Aftermarket business achieved fifth consecutive year of double-digit growth
- Climate Solutions Europe margin expansion of 260 bps driven by strong productivity and cost synergies
- Climate Solutions Transportation container revenue grew nearly 50%
- Residential and Light Commercial weakness in Americas: Residential down 38%, Light Commercial down 20%
- Distributor destocking in the Americas weighed on residential volumes
- Share count reduction from approximately $2.9 billion in full-year share repurchases
“We continue to drive outsized growth in commercial HVAC with Q4 orders up nearly 50% driven by key data center wins and are well positioned to drive our sixth consecutive year of double-digit growth in this business in 2026. Our aftermarket playbook also continues to yield results, reflected in our fifth consecutive year of double-digit growth. We continue to control the controllables, reducing discretionary costs and building backlog in our long-cycle businesses to mitigate residential market challenges.”
Carrier Global CEO, on the earnings call
Forward Guidance & Outlook
For full-year 2026, Carrier expects sales of approximately $22 billion, with flat to low-single-digit organic growth and reported sales flat to up low-single digits. The company is guiding to adjusted operating profit of approximately $3.4 billion, adjusted EPS of approximately $2.80, and free cash flow of approximately $2 billion. Approximately $1.5 billion in share repurchases are planned. The guidance assumes completion of the Riello divestiture by end of Q1 2026, creating a year-over-year headwind of approximately $350 million in sales and approximately $0.03 in adjusted EPS. The company expects continued double-digit growth in global commercial HVAC and aftermarket, with continued weakness in residential and light commercial businesses, particularly in the Americas.
CARR YoY Financials
CARR Revenue by Segment
Figures from SEC filings and company reports. Not investment advice.