Carrier Global (CARR) Q3 2025 Earnings
How Did CARR Stock React to Q3 2025 Earnings?
S&P 500 over the same 30 days: −0.53%.
Did CARR Beat Earnings? Q3 2025 Results
Yes. Carrier Global reported Q3 2025 earnings of $0.67 a share on Oct 28, 2025, beating the $0.57 consensus estimate by 17.7%. Revenue was $5.6B against a $5.6B estimate.
Carrier Global posted a headline beat in Q3 2025 that masked a deeply uneven quarter beneath the surface, with adjusted EPS of $0.67 clearing the $0.5692 consensus by 17.71% even as revenue slipped 6.8% year-over-year to $5.58 billion — edging past the $5.55 billion estimate by just 0.49%. The story behind the numbers was one of sharp divergence: Commercial HVAC in the Americas surged 30%, fueled by data center demand and a robust backlog, while Residential volumes cratered roughly 30% on weak end-markets and distributor destocking, dragging the CSA segment's margin down 560 basis points. Carrier's <a href="https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/02/14/carrier-globals-quiet-dividend-strategy-deserves-attention/">capital return approach</a> remained aggressive, with $3 billion returned to shareholders year-to-date and a new $5 billion buyback authorization approved. The mixed picture prompted management to lower full-year 2025 guidance, cutting the sales outlook to roughly $22 billion and trimming adjusted EPS to approximately $2.65, while pointing to cost reduction actions and data center momentum as catalysts for stronger earnings growth in 2026.
- Double-digit aftermarket growth
- Commercial HVAC grew 30% in the Americas (excluding NORESCO)
- Residential volumes in the Americas declined approximately 30% due to weak end-markets and distributor destocking
- Light Commercial in Americas down 4%
- Container segment grew 50% in Transportation
- Strong growth in India and Middle East partially offset weakness in China Residential
- Lower tax rate and reduced share count partially offset lower operating profit on EPS
- Commercial Refrigeration divestiture created a 4% headwind to reported sales
- 1% tailwind from foreign currency translation
“Our team drove continued double-digit aftermarket growth and strong performance in Commercial HVAC, which grew 30% in the Americas, both of which were more than offset by expected weakness in Residential in the Americas.”
Carrier Global CEO, on the earnings call
What Was Carrier Global's Outlook in Q3 2025?
Carrier lowered its full-year 2025 guidance, now expecting sales of ~$22 billion (down from prior ~$23 billion), with organic sales approximately flat and a ~$750 million headwind from the Commercial Refrigeration exit. Adjusted operating margin is guided at 15.0%–15.5%, down ~50 bps year-over-year. Adjusted EPS is expected at ~$2.65, up ~4% year-over-year (down from prior guidance of $3.00–$3.10). Free cash flow is expected at ~$2 billion. Management expressed confidence in strong earnings growth in 2026, citing cost reduction actions and a strong data center pipeline and backlog.
CARR YoY Financials
| Metric | Q3 2025 | Q3 2024 | Year over year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.6B | $6.0B | −6.8% |
| Gross Profit | $1.4B | $1.7B | −14.4% |
| Operating Income | $539.0M | $763.0M | −29.4% |
| Net Income | $428.0M | $447.0M | −4.3% |
CARR Revenue by Segment
Figures from SEC filings and company reports. Not investment advice.