Carrier Global Corp
Q3 2025 Earnings
Market Reaction
S&P 500 over the same 30 days: −0.53%.
Did CARR Beat Earnings? Q3 2025 Results
Carrier Global posted a headline beat in Q3 2025 that masked a deeply uneven quarter beneath the surface, with adjusted EPS of $0.67 clearing the $0.5692 consensus by 17.71% even as revenue slipped 6.8% year-over-year to $5.58 billion — edging past the $5.55 billion estimate by just 0.49%. The story behind the numbers was one of sharp divergence: Commercial HVAC in the Americas surged 30%, fueled by data center demand and a robust backlog, while Residential volumes cratered roughly 30% on weak end-markets and distributor destocking, dragging the CSA segment's margin down 560 basis points. Carrier's <a href="https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/02/14/carrier-globals-quiet-dividend-strategy-deserves-attention/">capital return approach</a> remained aggressive, with $3 billion returned to shareholders year-to-date and a new $5 billion buyback authorization approved. The mixed picture prompted management to lower full-year 2025 guidance, cutting the sales outlook to roughly $22 billion and trimming adjusted EPS to approximately $2.65, while pointing to cost reduction actions and data center momentum as catalysts for stronger earnings growth in 2026.
- Double-digit aftermarket growth
- Commercial HVAC grew 30% in the Americas (excluding NORESCO)
- Residential volumes in the Americas declined approximately 30% due to weak end-markets and distributor destocking
- Light Commercial in Americas down 4%
- Container segment grew 50% in Transportation
- Strong growth in India and Middle East partially offset weakness in China Residential
- Lower tax rate and reduced share count partially offset lower operating profit on EPS
- Commercial Refrigeration divestiture created a 4% headwind to reported sales
- 1% tailwind from foreign currency translation
“Our team drove continued double-digit aftermarket growth and strong performance in Commercial HVAC, which grew 30% in the Americas, both of which were more than offset by expected weakness in Residential in the Americas.”
Carrier Global CEO, on the earnings call
Forward Guidance & Outlook
Carrier lowered its full-year 2025 guidance, now expecting sales of ~$22 billion (down from prior ~$23 billion), with organic sales approximately flat and a ~$750 million headwind from the Commercial Refrigeration exit. Adjusted operating margin is guided at 15.0%–15.5%, down ~50 bps year-over-year. Adjusted EPS is expected at ~$2.65, up ~4% year-over-year (down from prior guidance of $3.00–$3.10). Free cash flow is expected at ~$2 billion. Management expressed confidence in strong earnings growth in 2026, citing cost reduction actions and a strong data center pipeline and backlog.
CARR YoY Financials
CARR Revenue by Segment
Figures from SEC filings and company reports. Not investment advice.