Carrier Global Corp
Q1 2026 Earnings
Market Reaction
S&P 500 over the same 30 days: +5.69%.
Did CARR Beat Earnings? Q1 2026 Results
Carrier Global delivered a stronger-than-expected first quarter for fiscal 2026, posting adjusted EPS of $0.57 against a consensus estimate of $0.51, a beat of 12.07%, while revenue of $5.34 billion topped expectations by 6.51% and rose 2.4% year over year. The headline numbers, however, masked a quarter defined by sharp margin compression, as GAAP operating profit fell 59% to $259 million and free cash flow turned negative at roughly $15 million, compared to $420 million a year ago, weighed down by $108 million in restructuring charges and Residential HVAC softness that drove factory under-absorption in the Americas segment. The genuine bright spot was demand momentum, with data center orders surging over 500% and total company orders climbing 11%, sending shares up nearly 9% on the trading day. Management reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance, targeting approximately $22 billion in sales, adjusted EPS of approximately $2.80, and free cash flow of approximately $2 billion, with a meaningful profitability recovery expected in the second half as the data center backlog converts to revenue.
- Data center orders up over 500% with backlog fully covering expected 2026 data center sales
- Total company orders up 11%; Commercial HVAC orders up 35%
- CSA Residential sales down approximately 12%, driving factory under-absorption and margin contraction
- Continued weakness in China Residential and Light Commercial
- CST Container sales growth of 38%
- 3% foreign currency translation tailwind offset 1% organic sales decline
- Restructuring costs of $108 million versus $8 million a year ago
- Lower share count partially offset operating profit decline
- Favorable adjusted effective tax rate of negative 0.8% versus 22.0% a year ago
“We started the year with better than expected sales performance across the portfolio. Orders in our global Commercial HVAC business increased 35%, helped by data centers which were up over 500% in the quarter. The strong double-digit sequential increase in Commercial HVAC backlog gives us the confidence to drive our sixth consecutive year of double-digit growth in this business. CSA Light commercial and CSE Residential both delivered growth, while CSA Residential came in better than expected. I am pleased with the team's performance in the first quarter, and we are reaffirming our full-year outlook.”
Carrier Global CEO, on the earnings call
Forward Guidance & Outlook
Carrier reaffirmed its full-year 2026 guidance: sales of approximately $22 billion (organic flat to up low-single digits, 1% FX tailwind, net acquisitions/divestitures headwind of 1%), with an approximately $250 million revenue headwind from the Riello divestiture (expected to close by end of Q2 2026, versus prior assumption of Q1 2026). Adjusted operating profit is expected at approximately $3.4 billion, adjusted EPS at approximately $2.80, and free cash flow at approximately $2 billion.
CARR YoY Financials
CARR Revenue by Segment
Figures from SEC filings and company reports. Not investment advice.