Canadian National Railway Company
Q2 2025 Earnings
Market Reaction
S&P 500 over the same 30 days: +1.75%.
Did CNI Beat Earnings? Q2 2025 Results
Canadian National Railway delivered a softer-than-expected second quarter, with earnings and revenue both falling short of Wall Street targets as trade volatility and shifting freight flows weighed on results. The railroad posted adjusted diluted EPS of $1.87, missing the $1.90 consensus estimate by 1.44%, while revenue slipped 1.3% year-over-year to $4.27 billion, coming in 1.67% below the $4.34 billion analysts had anticipated. The most consequential driver behind the headline miss was a broad softening in cargo volumes, with revenue ton miles declining 1% as weakness in forest products, petroleum, metals, and intermodal freight offset a standout 13% surge in grain and fertilizer revenues. CN did manage to improve its GAAP operating ratio by 2.3 points to 61.7%, aided by a 24% drop in fuel expense to $413.00 million. However, management cut its full-year adjusted EPS growth outlook to the mid-to-high single-digit range from a prior 10%-15% target and withdrew its 2024-2026 financial outlook entirely, signaling that persistent tariff uncertainty and volatile trade conditions remain a meaningful headwind heading into the second half of the year.
- Tight cost control and operational nimbleness drove margin improvement despite lower volumes
- Fuel expense decreased 24% due to lower fuel prices and elimination of Canadian federal carbon tax
- Grain and fertilizers revenue increased 13% on higher U.S. and Canadian grain exports and potash shipments
- Operating ratio improved 2.3 points to 61.7%
- Freight rate increases partly offset lower fuel surcharge revenues
- Weaker Canadian dollar provided positive translation impact on revenues
- Through network train speed improved 3%, car velocity improved 1%, and fuel efficiency improved 1%
“Our team's ability to be nimble and our focus on tight cost control allowed us to adjust our operations and deliver strong results despite a challenging external environment. We are working closely with customers, including those impacted by trade issues, to provide them with the services they need to win in their markets. We remain focused on powering the North American economy and delivering for shareholders.”
Canadian National Railway CEO, on the earnings call
Forward Guidance & Outlook
CN lowered its 2025 guidance due to economic uncertainty from persistent trade and tariff volatility, now expecting adjusted diluted EPS growth in the mid-to-high single-digit range (previously 10%-15%). The company also removed its 2024-2026 financial outlook entirely. CN now assumes RTM growth in the low single-digit range (previously low-to-mid single digits) and assumes the Canadian dollar will trade at US$0.70-$0.75 (previously approximately US$0.70). CN continues to assume slightly positive growth in North American industrial production, average WTI crude oil of US$60-$70 per barrel, and plans to invest approximately C$3.4 billion in its capital program. The company noted heightened demand risk from volatile macroeconomic conditions and global trade tensions.
CNI YoY Financials
CNI Revenue by Segment
CNI Revenue by Geography
Figures from SEC filings and company reports. Not investment advice.