Canadian National Railway Company
Q1 2026 Earnings
Market Reaction
S&P 500 over the same 30 days: +6.60%.
Did CNI Beat Earnings? Q1 2026 Results
Canadian National Railway delivered a narrowly disappointing first quarter for 2026, with adjusted diluted EPS of $1.80 missing the $1.81 consensus by 0.34% and revenue of $4.38 billion falling just short of the $4.40 billion estimate, down 0.6% from a year earlier. The culprit was largely currency-driven: a stronger Canadian dollar weighed on freight revenue per revenue ton-mile, compounded by the April 2025 elimination of Canada's federal carbon tax program, though both headwinds were partially offset by freight rate increases. Volume growth was a bright spot, with RTMs rising 3% to a first-quarter record of 61,834 million, led by a 10% revenue surge in Grain and Fertilizers to $1.05 billion on strong Canadian and U.S. grain exports. The operating ratio deteriorated 80 basis points on an adjusted basis to 64.2%, reflecting harsher winter conditions and elevated advisory costs. CN's shares have attracted <a href="https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/03/26/price-prediction-rbc-raises-canadian-nationals-stock-price-for-2027/">renewed analyst attention on valuation</a> even as management reiterated flattish RTM volume growth for 2026, with adjusted EPS growth expected to modestly exceed that pace amid persistent trade uncertainty.
- Record first-quarter revenue ton miles (RTMs) of 61,834 million, up 3% YoY
- Grain and Fertilizers segment revenue up 10% driven by higher Canadian and U.S. grain exports and potash exports
- Record first-quarter fuel efficiency of 0.892 US gallons per 1,000 GTMs, 3% more efficient
- Best first-quarter employee productivity in five years with GTMs per employee up 8%
- Free cash flow up 44% to C$900 million on higher operating cash flow and lower capital spending
- Negative impact of stronger Canadian dollar on revenue translation
- Elimination of Canadian federal carbon tax program reduced fuel and carbon surcharge revenues by C$44 million
- Higher winter-related costs including snow clearing and higher incident costs
- Higher effective tax rate of 24.7% vs. 24.0% in prior year
“I want to thank the entire CN team for delivering on our plan, despite ongoing uncertainty in the macro environment. Our strong commercial and operating performance allow us to fully leverage the strength of our network, enabling us to capture incremental volume. We remain firmly focused on safety, tight execution, cost control and capital discipline.”
Canadian National Railway CEO, on the earnings call
Forward Guidance & Outlook
CN continues to assume RTM volume growth will be flattish in 2026 and expects adjusted diluted EPS growth to slightly exceed volume growth. The company plans to invest approximately C$2.8 billion in its capital program in 2026, net of customer reimbursements, and expects to continue improving free cash flow conversion. Key assumptions include: 2026/2027 grain crops in Canada and the U.S. in line with five-year averages; Canadian dollar at US$0.73 (updated from US$0.715); and WTI crude oil at US$80–US$110 per barrel (updated from US$60–US$70). The company notes heightened demand risk from volatile macroeconomic conditions, geopolitical conflicts, and global trade tensions.
CNI YoY Financials
CNI Revenue by Segment
CNI Revenue by Geography
Figures from SEC filings and company reports. Not investment advice.