Canadian National Railway Company
Q4 2025 Earnings
Market Reaction
S&P 500 over the same 30 days: −0.99%.
Did CNI Beat Earnings? Q4 2025 Results
Canadian National Railway posted a stronger-than-expected fourth quarter, with adjusted earnings per share of $2.08 beating the $1.98 consensus estimate by 5.05%, even as revenue of $4.46 billion trailed analyst expectations of $5.64 billion by 20.87%, despite rising 2.4% year over year. The profit beat was underpinned by meaningful operational improvement, with the adjusted operating ratio tightening 2.5 points to 60.1% as gross ton miles climbed 5% and productivity gains pushed GTMs per average employee up 8%, effectively squeezing more output from a leaner cost base. Intermodal volumes surging 10% and grain and fertilizer freight rising 6% provided the top-line lift, partially offsetting softness in coal, forest products, and metals. For the full year, CN generated $3.34 billion in free cash flow, up 8%, and rewarded shareholders with a 3% dividend increase, its 30th consecutive annual hike, alongside a new buyback authorization for up to 24 million shares. Looking ahead, management expects flattish volume growth in 2026, with adjusted EPS growth modestly exceeding that pace, while trimming the capital program by $500 million amid elevated trade and macroeconomic uncertainty.
- Grain and fertilizers revenue grew 6% driven by 9% RTM increase
- Intermodal revenue grew 10% with 10% carload and RTM increases
- Adjusted operating ratio improved 2.5 points to 60.1%
- GTMs per average number of employees increased 8%
- Operating expenses per GTM decreased 4%
- Train length increased 3% to 7,868 feet
- Fuel efficiency improved 1%
- Lower fuel costs with average fuel price declining from $4.15 to $3.85 per US gallon
“Our team delivered a strong fourth quarter and closed 2025 with disciplined execution and a relentless focus on capturing opportunities for our customers. I thank our railroaders for their commitment to running the railroad safely and efficiently. In a challenging demand environment, their focus on service, cost control and productivity drove solid performance.”
Canadian National Railway CEO, on the earnings call
Forward Guidance & Outlook
CN assumes RTM volume growth will be flattish in 2026, with adjusted diluted EPS growth expected to slightly exceed volume growth. The 2026 capital program is set at approximately C$2.8 billion (net of customer reimbursements), a decrease of C$500 million from 2025. CN expects to continue improving free cash flow conversion throughout 2026. Key assumptions include the Canadian dollar at US$0.715, WTI crude oil at US$60-70/barrel, and Canadian and U.S. grain crops in line with five-year averages. Management notes heightened demand risk from volatile macroeconomic conditions and global trade tensions.
CNI YoY Financials
CNI Revenue by Segment
CNI Revenue by Geography
Figures from SEC filings and company reports. Not investment advice.