Q3 25 EPS
$0.27
MISS 16.72%
Est. $0.32
Q3 25 Revenue
$177.1M
MISS 31.11%
Est. $257.1M
vs S&P Since Q3 25
+30.8%
BEATING MARKET
ERO +39.0% vs S&P +8.2%
Market Reaction
Did ERO Beat Earnings? Q3 2025 Results
Ero Copper fell short of Wall Street expectations in Q3 2025, posting adjusted EPS of $0.27 against a consensus of $0.32 and revenue of $177.09 million that missed estimates by 31.11%, even as top-line results climbed 41.9% year over year. The primar… Read more Ero Copper fell short of Wall Street expectations in Q3 2025, posting adjusted EPS of $0.27 against a consensus of $0.32 and revenue of $177.09 million that missed estimates by 31.11%, even as top-line results climbed 41.9% year over year. The primary driver of the shortfall was the timing of Tucumã's commercial production declaration, effective July 1, 2025, which ended borrowing cost capitalization and added $5.40 million in incremental finance expense, while lower planned grades at Caraíba's Vermelhos and Pilar mines pushed blended C1 cash costs higher. On the operational side, the quarter was more constructive, with consolidated copper production reaching a record 16,664 tonnes and gold output at Xavantina rising 17% sequentially to 9,073 ounces. Looking ahead, management reaffirmed full-year copper production guidance at the low end of 67,500 to 80,000 tonnes and expects Q4 to be the strongest production quarter of the year, though Tucumã's C1 cost guidance was raised to $1.35 to $1.55 per pound from $1.10 to $1.30 per pound.
Key Takeaways
- • Continued ramp-up of Tucumã Operation driving 19% sequential increase in copper production
- • Record quarterly plant throughput at Caraíba Operations near 1.0 million tonnes following multi-quarter debottlenecking program
- • Transition to mechanized mining at Xavantina increasing gold production 17% quarter-on-quarter
- • Strengthening copper and gold prices toward end of quarter
- • $22.1 million foreign exchange gain from 3% strengthening of BRL against USD
ERO YoY Financials
Q3 2025 vs Q3 2024, source: SEC Filings
ERO Revenue by Segment
With YoY comparisons, source: SEC Filings
“We are pleased with the continued progress across our operations, where the effort and investment we've made in optimization initiatives are driving sequential copper and gold production growth in the second half of 2025. Highlights include the transition from manual to mechanized mining at Xavantina that provides us with the opportunity to enhance our health and safety efforts at the mine while also increasing our development and exploration opportunities, the continued ramp-up at Tucumã, and encouraging results from Phase 1 and early completion of the Phase 2 drill program at Furnas. While Q3 represented another record consolidated copper production quarter, we are excited for how all of our operations are aligned heading into Q4, which we expect to be our strongest operating quarter of the year.”
— Makko DeFilippo, Q3 2025 Earnings Press Release
ERO Earnings Trends
ERO vs Market 30 Day Price Reactions
30-day stock return vs benchmark after each earnings
ERO EPS Trend
Earnings per share: estimate vs actual
ERO Revenue Trend
Quarterly revenue: estimate vs actual
ERO Quarterly Results
5 quarters of earnings data
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 26 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Q1 26 BEAT | $0.52 | $0.69 | +31.98% | $263.2M | -23.00% |
| Q4 25 MISS FY | $1.05 | $1.04 | -1.39% | $320.2M | -25.19% |
| FY Full Year | — | $2.12 | — | $785.8M | — |
| Q3 25 MISS | $0.32 | $0.27 | -16.72% | $177.1M | -31.11% |
| Q2 25 BEAT | $0.34 | $0.46 | +35.61% | $163.5M | -25.07% |