Q4 25 EPS
$1.04
MISS 1.39%
Est. $1.05
Q4 25 Revenue
$320.2M
MISS 25.19%
Est. $428.0M
vs S&P Since Q4 25
-19.4%
TRAILING MARKET
ERO -10.4% vs S&P +9.1%
Full Year 2025 Results
FY 25 EPS
$2.12
FY 25 Revenue
$785.8M
Market Reaction
Did ERO Beat Earnings? Q4 2025 Results
Ero Copper posted a mixed fourth quarter for fiscal 2025, falling just short of expectations on both the top and bottom lines as the company's operational transformation continued to reshape its financial profile. Adjusted earnings came in at $1.04 p… Read more Ero Copper posted a mixed fourth quarter for fiscal 2025, falling just short of expectations on both the top and bottom lines as the company's operational transformation continued to reshape its financial profile. Adjusted earnings came in at $1.04 per diluted share, a narrow 1.39% miss against the $1.05 consensus, while revenue of $320.15 million trailed estimates by 25.19%, though the figure still represented a striking 161.3% increase year-over-year as the Tucumã Operation, which declared commercial production on July 1, 2025, ramped toward full capacity. Tucumã contributed 9,275 tonnes of copper in Q4 alone, a 22.4% sequential increase, and was the single largest driver of the revenue surge that propelled full-year adjusted EBITDA to $409.69 million. Looking ahead, Ero guided 2026 consolidated copper production at 67,500 to 77,500 tonnes at C1 cash costs of $2.15 to $2.35 per pound, with analysts maintaining a broadly constructive view on the stock despite near-term cost headwinds tied to lower planned grades and a stronger Brazilian real.
Key Takeaways
- • Tucumã Operation ramp-up contributing incremental copper revenue of $261.4 million in 2025 vs $31.2 million in 2024
- • Higher realized copper prices ($5.07/lb in Q4 2025 vs $3.71/lb in Q4 2024) and gold prices ($3,885/oz vs $2,080/oz)
- • Record mill throughput at Caraíba of nearly 1.2 million tonnes in Q4 following plant debottlenecking initiative
- • Xavantina gold concentrate shipments of 12,754 ounces sold in Q4 from value-creation initiative
- • Favorable foreign exchange — BRL strengthened 12.5% against USD in 2025 contributing $95.7 million FX gain vs $165.0 million loss in 2024
- • Full-year cash flow from operations increased $249.7 million or 171.7% compared to 2024
ERO YoY Financials
Q4 2025 vs Q4 2024, source: SEC Filings
ERO Revenue by Segment
With YoY comparisons, source: SEC Filings
“We are pleased with our operating trajectory and performance in the fourth quarter, which delivered record quarterly copper production as well as the first tangible benefits of record quarterly gold from the Xavantina Operations following the commencement of our gold concentrate program in Q4.”
— Makko DeFilippo, Q4 2025 Earnings Press Release
ERO Earnings Trends
ERO vs Market 30 Day Price Reactions
30-day stock return vs benchmark after each earnings
ERO EPS Trend
Earnings per share: estimate vs actual
ERO Revenue Trend
Quarterly revenue: estimate vs actual
ERO Quarterly Results
5 quarters of earnings data
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 26 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Q1 26 BEAT | $0.52 | $0.69 | +31.98% | $263.2M | -23.00% |
| Q4 25 MISS FY | $1.05 | $1.04 | -1.39% | $320.2M | -25.19% |
| FY Full Year | — | $2.12 | — | $785.8M | — |
| Q3 25 MISS | $0.32 | $0.27 | -16.72% | $177.1M | -31.11% |
| Q2 25 BEAT | $0.34 | $0.46 | +35.61% | $163.5M | -25.07% |