Q2 26 EPS Adjusted
$0.99
BEAT +5.20%
Est. $0.94
Adjusted EPS of $0.99 excludes $3.2 million of transaction-related costs associated with the WildFire Energy acquisition, with a $0.672 million tax benefit adjustment at an assumed 21.0% effective tax rate
Q2 26 Revenue
$478.8M
BEAT +3.51%
Est. $462.6M
vs S&P Since Q2 26
+6.2%
BEATING MARKET
MGY +6.7% vs S&P +0.5%
Market Reaction
Did MGY Beat Earnings? Q2 2026 Results
Magnolia Oil & Gas delivered a strong second quarter 2026, beating Wall Street expectations on both the top and bottom lines as surging commodity prices and production growth drove a 50.1% year-over-year revenue jump to $478.81 million, ahead of the … Read more Magnolia Oil & Gas delivered a strong second quarter 2026, beating Wall Street expectations on both the top and bottom lines as surging commodity prices and production growth drove a 50.1% year-over-year revenue jump to $478.81 million, ahead of the $462.58 million consensus by 3.51%. Adjusted EPS of $0.99, which excludes $3.2 million in transaction-related costs tied to the pending WildFire Energy acquisition, cleared the $0.94 analyst estimate by 5.20%, while GAAP earnings came in at $0.97 per diluted share. The core driver behind the revenue surge was a 39% increase in average realized prices to $49.60 per boe alongside an 8% production gain to 106.1 Mboe/d, pushing adjusted EBITDAX up 66% year-over-year to $370.31 million. The quarter's defining development remains the announced $4.06 billion WildFire acquisition, expected to close late in Q3 2026, which prompted at least one analyst upgrade citing meaningful cash flow per share accretion and an inventory life extension to 11 years. Magnolia raised standalone full-year 2026 production growth guidance to 6% and lifted its quarterly dividend 9% to $0.18 per share.
Key Takeaways
- • Higher oil prices with average realized price of $98.13/Bbl (106% of WTI) vs $62.20/Bbl in Q2 2025
- • 8% year-over-year total production growth to 106.1 Mboe/d
- • 5% year-over-year oil production growth to 41.9 Mbbls/d
- • 10% year-over-year Giddings total production growth to 85.5 Mboe/d
- • Higher NGL prices at $23.25/Bbl vs $19.94/Bbl in Q2 2025
- • Adjusted cash operating margin expanded to 77% from 70% year-over-year
- • Adjusted operating income margin expanded to 51% from 34% year-over-year
- • Low capital reinvestment rate of 34% of adjusted EBITDAX
MGY Forward Guidance & Outlook
On a standalone basis, Magnolia raised full-year 2026 production growth guidance to 6% from 5%. Q3 2026 standalone D&C capital spending is estimated at approximately $115 million, with total standalone company capital spending for the year reiterated at $440 to $480 million. Q3 2026 total production is expected to be similar to Q2 levels (~106.1 Mboe/d). Oil price differentials in Q3 2026 are expected to be approximately a $3 per barrel discount to Magellan East Houston. Post-WildFire closing, the fully diluted share count is expected to be approximately 269 million. The WildFire acquisition is expected to close late in Q3 2026, with estimated annual run-rate synergies exceeding $100 million by year-end 2027. The company targets leverage reduction to 0.5x net debt/EBITDA or below.
MGY YoY Financials
Q2 2026 vs Q2 2025, source: SEC Filings
MGY Revenue by Segment
With YoY comparisons, source: SEC Filings
“Our second quarter results continue to underscore the strength of Magnolia's differentiated business model and the quality of our asset base. The consistent capital allocation discipline, operational execution and continued focus on our financial returns, helped generate meaningful free cash flow totaling $235 million during the second quarter. Our adjusted EBITDAX during the quarter was $370 million, and with capital for drilling and completions of approximately $125 million, our reinvestment rate for the quarter was just 34 percent. Stronger than expected overall oil and gas production totaling 106.1 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day and oil production of 41.9 thousand barrels of oil per day further supported our quarterly financial results and enabled us to increase Magnolia's standalone full-year 2026 production growth guidance to 6 percent from 5 percent.”
— Chris Stavros, Q2 2026 Earnings Press Release
MGY Earnings Trends
MGY vs Market 30 Day Price Reactions
30-day stock return vs benchmark after each earnings
MGY EPS Trend
Earnings per share: estimate vs actual
MGY Revenue Trend
Quarterly revenue: estimate vs actual
MGY Quarterly Results
5 quarters of earnings data
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 26 BEAT Adjusted EPS of $0.99 excludes $3.2 million of transaction-related costs associated with the WildFire Energy acquisition, with a $0.672 million tax benefit adjustment at an assumed 21.0% effective tax rate | $0.94 | $0.99 | +5.20% | $478.8M | +3.51% |
| Q1 26 BEAT | $0.52 | $0.54 | +3.19% | $358.5M | +1.16% |
| Q4 25 BEAT FY | $0.36 | $0.37 | +1.84% | $317.6M | +1.24% |
| FY Full Year | — | $1.73 | — | $1.31B | — |
| Q3 25 MISS | $0.42 | $0.40 | -3.80% | $324.9M | +0.61% |
| Q2 25 BEAT | $0.40 | $0.41 | +2.83% | $319.0M | +1.59% |