Live: Will Cisco’s Q4 Earnings Tonight Continue the Stock’s 61% YTD Rally?

By Thomas Richmond Published Aug 12, 3:07PM EDT

Loading chart data...

Quick Read

CSCO has rallied 59% YTD to all-time highs as hyperscaler AI orders track toward a raised $9 billion FY26 target heading into today's report.
Patterson signaled at least $6 billion in FY27 AI hyperscale revenue, making early guidance commentary the most critical variable beyond the Q4 headline numbers.
Q4 consensus sits at $16.83 billion in revenue and $1.17 EPS, with Polymarket implying a 96% beat probability, but margins near 66% remain the pressure point.
Dunkin’ was acquired for $11B. JDE Peet's IPO’d at $17B. And Starbucks today is valued at a $110B market cap. Green Coffee Company wants to be the next great investment. They control the entire supply chain from seed to sale, and now you can invest. Read more here. (sponsored)

Live Updates

The Guidance Wall Street Wants to See from Cisco Tonight

8 minutes ago

Live

With shares up 58.6% YTD and a P/E near 40, the Q4 beat is largely priced in. The FY27 outlook is what moves the stock.

Management has raised FY26 guidance every quarter, a pattern of conservative initial guides followed by upward revisions.

CFO Mark Patterson already flagged that “it’s reasonable to expect we will recognize at least $6 billion of revenue in FY ’27” from AI hyperscale, up from $4.0 billion in FY26.

Bullish scenario: an AI order target lifted beyond $9 billion, gross margin held at 66%, and FY27 revenue above consensus.
Bearish scenario: an in-line FY27 guide, hyperscaler order deceleration, or accelerating margin compression from AI hardware mix.

Security and Splunk cloud commentary will also shape the stock’s reaction.

Analysts' Top 5 Questions for Cisco Ahead of Tonight's Q4 Earnings

11 minutes ago

Live

With Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO | CSCO Price Prediction) reporting after the bell, here’s what to listen for on tonight’s call.

Key Topics & Buzzwords

Listen for “architectural shift,” “silicon and optics,” “sovereign AI,” and RPO growth.
Campus refresh cycle durability after >25% order growth.

Red Flags

Gross margin below the 65.5%-66.5% range.
Hyperscaler concentration disclosures or tariff-driven guidance cuts.
Insider selling continued alongside institutional trimming.

Cisco’s $9B AI Order Target Faces a Major Test in Q4 Earnings Tonight

35 minutes ago

Live

Cisco enters its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report with AI hyperscaler orders on track to reach a newly raised $9 billion fiscal 2026 target.

The quarter should also provide investors with their first indication of whether that momentum can continue into fiscal 2027.

The company has emerged as a credible AI infrastructure play, helping shares climb over 60% year to date.

Polymarket traders now assign Cisco a 96.1% probability of beating earnings expectations, setting a high bar for the report.

Investors should watch whether surging AI hyperscaler demand can offset pressure from Cisco’s increasingly hardware-heavy revenue mix. Gross margins have stabilized near 66%, but faster hardware growth could weigh on the profitability narrative.

Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO) reports Q4 FY2026 results today after the bell at 4:05 PM ET. Shares sit near all-time highs after an AI-fueled rally, closing out a fiscal year management called “positioned for its strongest year ever.”

Momentum Meets Elevated Expectations

Last quarter, Cisco posted record revenue of $15.8 billion, up 12% YoY, with non-GAAP EPS of $1.06 marking a fourth straight beat. Total product orders climbed 35% YoY, or 19% excluding hyperscalers.

Management raised the FY26 hyperscaler AI order target to $9 billion from $5 billion and lifted FY26 AI revenue to roughly $4 billion. Non-GAAP gross margin narrowed 260 basis points due to hardware mix. Shares have soared 73.92% over the past year, trading at $124.26 ahead of earnings, showing meaningful upside to analysts’ average price target of $132.59.

Consensus Estimates

Metric	Q4 FY26 Estimate	YoY Change	Q4 Cisco Guide	FY26 Cisco Guide
Revenue	$16.83B	+14.7%	$16.7B to $16.9B	$62.8B to $63.0B
EPS (Non-GAAP)	$1.1689	+18.1%	$1.16 to $1.18	$4.27 to $4.29

Consensus sits at the top of Cisco’s own management’s Q4 guidance range on both lines. Revenue growth near 15% would be the strongest quarterly result in years and validate the raised AI outlook.

Margin commentary carries more weight than the headline given the hardware-heavy mix reshaping product economics.

What I’m Watching: AI Orders, Margin Mix, and the FY27 Setup

Tonight, I’ll be watching the FY26 close on hyperscaler AI orders. Robbins said Q3 bookings hit $1.9 billion versus $600 million a year prior, with YTD at $5.3 billion against the raised $9 billion target.

Investors will also focus on Acacia. The optics business booked over $1 billion in Q3 alone and is tracking to grow over 200% in FY26. I want confirmation that the 800-gig ramp is holding cadence, and whether recent Silicon One P200 design wins are converting to bookings.

Additionally, analysts will be watching margins closely. CFO Mark Patterson said non-GAAP gross margin has “stabilized” near 66%. Product margin fell 330 basis points in Q3, and Q4 will test whether tightened 15-day pricing windows flow through.

Also, it will be interesting to track FY27 guidance and outlook. Patterson signaled at least $6 billion of AI hyperscale revenue in FY27, with the rest of the portfolio compounding in line with the long-term 4% to 6% model. Any deviation reprices the multiple.

Earnings History

Quarter	EPS Surprise	Day-Of Move	1-Week Move	30-Day Move
Q3 FY26	+2.29%	+13.41%	+2.31%	+3.5%
Q2 FY26	+1.75%	-0.87%	-8.16%	-7.76%
Q1 FY26	+1.86%	+3.14%	+5.99%	+5.8%
Q4 FY25	+0.99%	-1.37%	-4.67%	-4.8%

On average, shares moved -1.13% one week after earnings over the past four quarters.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

This is a paid advertisement for Green Coffee Company's Regulation A offering. Please read the offering circular at https://invest.greencoffeecompany.com/. Timelines are subject to change. Listing on the NASDAQ is contingent upon necessary approvals, and reserving a ticker symbol does not guarantee a company's public listing.

Compensation disclosure. 24/7 Wall St., a brand of Flywheel Publishing, is paid $4.50 for each click on the promotional links in this article. This compensation is paid to us by Launch Potato LLC in connection with the Regulation A offering of Green Coffee Co Holdings, LLC. The per-click rate is fixed and is not subject to volume thresholds, conversion bonuses, or other adjustments. Our compensation does not depend on whether any reader invests, on the amount invested, or on whether the offering succeeds. Because compensation depends on click volume and the campaign has no fixed end date, the total amount we receive is not determinable in advance. Rate stated as of July 28, 2026.

24/7 Wall St. and its affiliates hold no securities in Green Coffee Co Holdings, LLC. We do not endorse this offering or any statement made in the offering materials, and nothing here is a recommendation to invest. This promotional content was supplied or approved by the issuer and was not produced by our editorial staff.

Green Coffee Co Holdings, LLC is conducting an offering under Regulation A of the Securities Act of 1933. Offers and sales may be made only by means of the qualified offering circular. Read it in full, including the risk factors, before investing: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001819425/000110465926080902/tm2614683d7_253g2.htm. All Green Coffee Co Holdings, LLC filings are available at https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=1819425. Qualification of an offering statement by the SEC does not mean the SEC has approved the offering or passed on the merits or accuracy of the offering materials.

This is a speculative investment. The securities are illiquid, there is no public trading market for them, investors should be prepared to hold indefinitely, and investors should be prepared to lose the entire amount invested. Past performance does not predict future results. Forward-looking statements are estimates subject to substantial uncertainty.

This post may contain links from our sponsors and affiliates, and Flywheel Publishing may receive compensation for actions taken through them.

About the Author Thomas Richmond →

Thomas Richmond is a financial writer and content strategist with 5+ years of experience covering stocks and financial markets. He has published over 250 articles focused on individual stock analysis, helping investors better understand business fundamentals, stock valuations, and long-term opportunities.

Thomas previously served as a Content Lead at TIKR, a stock research platform, where he helped scale the company’s blog to hundreds of articles per month and contributed to a weekly newsletter reaching more than 100,000 investors.

He specializes in breaking down complex companies into clear, actionable insights for everyday investors, with a focus on fundamentals-driven research.

His work has also been featured on platforms including Seeking Alpha and Sure Dividend.

Outside of work, Thomas enjoys weight lifting and soccer.