Vistra’s 2026 Guidance Reinforces Its Multi-Year Growth Path

Vistra (NYSE: VST) delivered a record-setting full-year 2025 performance, with Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA reaching $5.91 billion, surpassing the company’s own original guidance midpoint by roughly $112 million. The headline GAAP numbers look softer due to $808 million in non-cash unrealized commodity hedging losses, but the underlying operational story is one of consistent execution and accelerating growth. Shares are trading at $168.68, down about 2.2% over the past week, though still up 4.6% year-to-date.

Earnings Scorecard

Bottom Line

Vistra’s core business is performing at a level that justifies management’s confidence. The record Adjusted EBITDA, locked-in long-term power purchase agreements with hyperscale technology buyers, and a ~30% reduction in share count since November 2021 through roughly $5.9 billion in buybacks paint a picture of a management team allocating capital with conviction.

The risks worth watching are real: interest expense climbed to $1.18 billion in 2025 from $900 million in 2024, and the pending Cogentrix acquisition of roughly 5,500 MW adds integration complexity. The Moss Landing battery incident also resulted in a $155 million impairment in the Asset Closure segment.

With approximately 100% of 2026 generation already hedged and multi-decade contracts with AWS and Meta anchoring the nuclear portfolio, investors should focus on Cogentrix integration progress and whether 2026 Adjusted EBITDA tracks toward the top of the guidance range as the key signals for the year ahead.