Reuters speculates that Wall St. may be more interested in the two days of iPhone sales that Apple (AAPL) will report for the last quarter than in the earnings themselves.
That would be a mistake.
While the market has a very good idea how many iPhones were sold during the 48 hours (best guess is about 700,000), the drivers of the business over the next year will still be the Mac and iPod.
IDC research indicates that Mac sales were strong in Q2, which means that contribution from the computer part of Apple’s house should be modestly stronger than they were last year.
However, as Reuters points out: "Shipments of iPods are expected to have risen more than 20 percent from a year earlier, but fallen short of the previous quarter as consumers postponed purchases in anticipation of the iPhone and new iPod models expected later this year."
And that is where the market’s concern should be. The iPod now has sold over 100 million units worldwide, and its growth rate is slowing due to both market penetration and potential migration of customers to the iPhone.
Apple sold 8.5 million iPods in the quarter that ended on April 1. But Wall St. has started to pull back on estimates for sales in the current quarter, with some analysts putting sales at 9.6 million units.
If unit sales do fall below 9.5 million mark, the stock can’t hold its current level no matter how pumped up the market is about the iPhone.
Douglas A. McIntyre
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