Durable Goods Somehow Show Upside Surpise

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The Commerce Department has reported that Durable Goods for September have somehow managed to beat expectations this morning.  While the durable goods report for big ticket items is the most volatile of all numbers and is often not representative of the whole economy, it is nice to see that some numbers are at least holding up. 

The headline number came in at +0.8% and the ex-Transportation numbercame in at -1.1%.  Economists were mostly looking for a drop at -1.0%headline estimate.  On an ex-Defense basis, Durable Goods were -0.6%.

Business equipment spending wasn’t that hot, as it showed a reading of-1.4%. August’s reading was -2.2% for business equipment spending.

August Durable Goods were also revised to -5.5% from -4.8%, so this is coming off of a horrible  month before.

Don’t look for any help from primary metals, which fell by a rate of -4.5%.  Computers and electronics also fell by -1.4%.

These numbers are in no way "hot" and won’t keep the FOMC from makingthe same rate cut decision that would have been made with data as of7:00 AM this morning.  But at least the whole shooting match hasn’tgone to hell in a hand basket.

Jon C. Ogg
October 29, 2008