The national average cost of a Thanksgiving dinner for a family of 10 this year has risen less than 1% year-over-year, from $49.04 to $49.41. In 2004 the same dinner cost $35.68, for an increase of nearly 38.5% in nominal dollars. Since 2004, though, U.S. real median household income has dropped about 5% (see chart below).

According to the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF), a 16-pound turkey will cost about $1.35 a pound this year, for a total cost of $21.65, which is 11 cents less than it cost last year. Sweet potatoes and dairy products contribute $0.63 in increased costs, while cubed stuffing, fresh cranberries and pie shells cost $0.28 less than they did a year ago. The AFBF noted, as we did last weekend, that even though turkey production is lower this year and wholesale prices are higher, grocery stores often price turkeys as loss leaders.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) did not miss a beat here. The company said Thursday morning that Walmart shoppers could save 34% on the national average cost by purchasing all the items on the AFBF menu at Walmart stores for $32.64. The company said that the items it included are comparable to the AFBF menu items.

Thanksgiving dinner cost more in 2012, according to the Farm Bureau, a total of $49.48 in a year when drought over much of the United States raised prices on a number of traditional holiday foods.

The AFBF survey involved 179 volunteer shoppers who checked prices at grocery stores in 35 states. The Farm Bureau also noted that a ready-to-eat Thanksgiving dinner can be purchased for $50 to $75 from many supermarkets and restaurants.

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