Economy

TrimTabs Indicates Weakest Monthly Payrolls Since February 2014

The financial markets are eagerly awaiting Friday’s unemployment and payrolls report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Two reports, one from ADP and one from TrimTabs act to front-run the payrolls expectations each and every month. We already saw that ADP met estimates at 200,000 or so, and now we have the TrimTabs report signaling that only 149,000 payrolls were created in September.

TrimTabs Investment Research indicates that its estimates were now the lowest monthly job growth since February 2014, when a mere 135,000 jobs were added to the economy.

TrimTabs’ employment estimates are based on analysis of daily income tax deposits to the U.S. Treasury, and they are taken from the 142 million U.S. paychecks that are subject to withholding. TrimTabs noted that its estimates are not subject to major revisions long after their initial release.

In a research note, TrimTabs noted that growth in income tax withholdings has pulled back to its lowest level this year. The combined quote from Wednesday’s report said:

Turmoil in financial markets and emerging economies seems to be having a negative knock-on effect on the U.S. economy. Employment growth this month was much lower than the 241,000 jobs in August. … Market volatility, modest job growth, and softness in manufacturing suggest the Federal Reserve won’t raise rates any earlier than December. If asset prices don’t rebound, the Fed will likely stay on hold well into next year.

While TrimTabs was much lower than ADP, the market still focuses on ADP data, perhaps due to the seasonal adjustments and revisions.

Bloomberg has a 203,000 consensus estimate for the BLS data for Friday morning.

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