There are at least two ways to determine which candidates are most likely to get elected. One is polls, which have, in the past, missed the mark. The other is oddsmakers who are actually willing to bet money on election results. They have an incentive to watch candidates at least as closely as pollsters, the media, or political parties.
Among the biggest pool of gamblers on the upcoming Democratic primaries and the general election as well is a gambling site PredictIt. Founded by the faculty members at the Victory Univesity at Wellington, it was created to help researchers predict events. Academic institutions have access to their information at no cost. People can buy shares on the market, based on what they think outcomes of events will be. People who are correct make money. Those who are wrong, lose.
PredictIt has become a global market, with participating bettors from all over the world.
Unlike many polls, the gamblers on PreditIt put Elizabeth Warren ahead of Joe Biden. The “yes” vote for her is worth 31 cents on a dollars. Biden is at 26 cents. The balance of the field is well behind them. Kamala Harris is at 15 cents, followed by Bernie Sanders at 14 cents. Andrew Yang is at 10 cents and Pete Buttigieg at 8 cents. No other candidate is even close.
As for odds for who will be elected president, Trump is at 44 cents, Warren at 21 cents, and Biden at 17 cents. Sanders trails well behind at 9 cents, well out of the money as they say.
The primary season has months to go, and the Democratic convention a year away. That leaves the gamblers against the pollsters and the pundits.