Healthcare Economy

This Is the Number of People Predicted to Die of COVID-19 in Every State

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington’s School of Medicine has one of the most carefully followed and widely regarded COVID-19 prediction models for deaths, daily infections and testing, mask use, hospital resource use and social distancing. The projections cover every country in the world. Recently, the researchers forecast that total U.S. COVID-19 deaths would reach 539,000 by April 1. The data also was issued by state.

It is staggering to think that another 250,000 Americans could die of COVID-19 between now and the spring, but that is the forecast. Almost 290,000 Americans have died from the disease already. Deaths have started to rise by as many as 3,000 a day. Total confirmed cases in America have hit 15,511,043, up by over 100,000 in a day. The daily confirmed case increase has routinely risen to 200,000.

Hospitalizations, a primary marker of how many Americans are extremely ill, have topped 100,000 and continue to rise. In many hospitals throughout the country, ICU bed capacity has become strained. These are all the cities that have run out of ICU beds.

IHME’s methodology to predict deaths relies on several parameters. Mask wearing is among these. If 95% of Americans wore masks in public, combined with a vaccine rollout, 66,000 lives could be saved compared to the current projection. Dr. Christopher Murray, IHME director, made the importance of this crystal clear, “Especially in the Northern Hemisphere, it’s crucial for governments to impose or re-impose mandates that limit gatherings and require masks. Where the winter surge is driving spikes in infections, there will be many people who can still become infected and possibly die before the vaccine is fully rolled out.”

These are the 116 American counties where no one has died from COVID-19.

24/7 Wall St. reviewed IHME’s current projection scenario by April 1, 2021, for each state. The calculation includes the state, its total population and the IHME forecast for total deaths. We have also included deaths per 100,000 people to make state-to-state comparisons more accurate.

State Population Projected Deaths Deaths per 100K
United States of America 328,239,523 538,893 164.18
Alabama 4,903,185 8,702 177.47
Alaska 731,545 291 39.83
Arizona 7,278,717 12,728 174.86
Arkansas 3,017,804 4,472 148.20
California 39,512,223 54,120 136.97
Colorado 5,758,736 10,797 187.50
Connecticut 3,565,287 8,163 228.95
Delaware 973,764 1,262 129.62
Florida 21,477,737 33,232 154.73
Georgia 10,617,423 3,311 31.18
Hawaii 1,415,872 780 55.10
Idaho 1,787,065 2,534 141.78
Illinois 12,671,821 27,497 216.99
Indiana 6,732,219 10,493 155.86
Iowa 3,155,070 4,994 158.28
Kansas 2,913,314 4,490 154.13
Kentucky 4,467,673 4,940 110.56
Louisiana 4,648,794 9,807 210.96
Maine 1,344,212 834 62.07
Maryland 6,045,680 10,775 178.23
Massachusetts 6,892,503 15,224 220.88
Michigan 9,986,857 17,454 174.77
Minnesota 5,639,632 7,901 140.09
Mississippi 2,976,149 5,799 194.85
Missouri 6,137,428 8,371 136.39
Montana 1,068,778 2,196 205.48
Nebraska 1,934,408 3,385 174.99
Nevada 3,080,156 4,870 158.11
New Hampshire 1,359,711 1,180 86.79
New Jersey 8,882,190 26,165 294.58
New Mexico 2,096,829 5,747 274.06
New York 19,453,561 48,932 251.53
North Carolina 10,488,084 12,997 123.92
North Dakota 762,062 1,552 203.60
Ohio 11,689,100 16,025 137.09
Oklahoma 3,956,971 4,097 103.54
Oregon 4,217,737 5,169 122.56
Pennsylvania 12,801,989 27,797 217.13
Rhode Island 1,059,361 2,255 212.85
South Carolina 5,148,714 7,611 147.82
South Dakota 884,659 2,062 233.08
Tennessee 6,829,174 10,494 153.66
Texas 28,995,881 39,704 136.93
Utah 3,205,958 2,884 89.97
Vermont 623,989 154 24.64
Virginia 8,535,519 11,766 137.85
Washington 7,614,893 6,669 87.58
West Virginia 1,792,147 3,057 170.60
Wisconsin 5,822,434 8,608 147.83
Wyoming 578,759 768 132.78