Health and Healthcare

This Is the Number of People Predicted to Die of COVID-19 in Every State

Douglas A. McIntyre

Published: December 11, 2020 7:51 am

Last Updated: December 11, 2020 7:52 am

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington’s School of Medicine has one of the most carefully followed and widely regarded COVID-19 prediction models for deaths, daily infections and testing, mask use, hospital resource use and social distancing. The projections cover every country in the world. Recently, the researchers forecast that total U.S. COVID-19 deaths would reach 539,000 by April 1. The data also was issued by state.

It is staggering to think that another 250,000 Americans could die of COVID-19 between now and the spring, but that is the forecast. Almost 290,000 Americans have died from the disease already. Deaths have started to rise by as many as 3,000 a day. Total confirmed cases in America have hit 15,511,043, up by over 100,000 in a day. The daily confirmed case increase has routinely risen to 200,000.

Hospitalizations, a primary marker of how many Americans are extremely ill, have topped 100,000 and continue to rise. In many hospitals throughout the country, ICU bed capacity has become strained. These are all the cities that have run out of ICU beds.

IHME’s methodology to predict deaths relies on several parameters. Mask wearing is among these. If 95% of Americans wore masks in public, combined with a vaccine rollout, 66,000 lives could be saved compared to the current projection. Dr. Christopher Murray, IHME director, made the importance of this crystal clear, “Especially in the Northern Hemisphere, it’s crucial for governments to impose or re-impose mandates that limit gatherings and require masks. Where the winter surge is driving spikes in infections, there will be many people who can still become infected and possibly die before the vaccine is fully rolled out.”

These are the 116 American counties where no one has died from COVID-19.

24/7 Wall St. reviewed IHME’s current projection scenario by April 1, 2021, for each state. The calculation includes the state, its total population and the IHME forecast for total deaths. We have also included deaths per 100,000 people to make state-to-state comparisons more accurate.

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