Home prices for both existing home sales and new construction are currently on the rise, although experts predict that lower mortgage rates will make 2025 a better market for home buyers. Current issues for people looking to buy include limited inventory, high mortgage rates, and increasing home values. However, the U.S. housing market can differ based on region. Where some states are witnessing increasing home prices, other areas may be experiencing more affordable prices.
Using data from NAHB, 24/7 Wall St. identified the states where the most people cannot afford a new home. We ranked all 50 states on the estimated share of households who do not earn enough to afford a new, median-priced home, according to NAHB. Supplemental data on median household income is from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2022 American Community Survey. A full methodology is available in the NAHB’s March 2024 report.
According to estimates from the National Association of Home Builders, the median price of a new home in the U.S. was $495,750 in March 2024, up over 16% from the previous year and nearly 44% higher than in January 2020, before the pandemic. Meanwhile, the average interest rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage has been over 6.5% for nearly a year, up from less than 3% as recently as October 2021.
Assuming a 10% down payment, and accounting for borrowing costs on a 6.5% 30-year fixed rate mortgage, as well as property taxes, a household would need to have an annual income of nearly $152,000 to be able to afford a typical new home and not spend more than 28% of their gross income on housing, according to the NAHB. Based on this model, 103.5 million households — or 76.9% of all American households — are not able to comfortably afford a new home.
Of course, both incomes and home prices vary considerably across the country. While there are places where a new home is still affordable to large shares of the population, there are also parts of the country where buying a new home is prohibitively expensive for the majority of residents.
The share of households in America who cannot afford a typical new home varies by state ranging from 66% to over 90%. Income and the price of real estate determine affordability in a given area. States with higher-than-average new home prices may not necessarily be the states where the largest shares of the population are priced out. On the other hand, the states where most people can afford to buy a new home do not necessarily have higher-than-average incomes.
Mississippi, for example, has the lowest median household income in the country, at just $52,719. Still, the typical new home in Mississippi is listed at $295,835. Low housing prices offset low incomes in the state, and as a result, Mississippi is one of only two states where over 30% of households can comfortably afford a new home. (Here is a look at the poorest towns in the United States.)
The average household in Hawaii earns about $92,500 a year, well above the median household income nationwide of $74,755. However, at nearly $1.1 million, Hawaii also has the highest median new home list price of any state. Accounting for both income and home prices, an estimated 88.5% of households in Hawaii cannot afford a new home, the third largest share of any state. (Here is a look at the most affordable housing market in each state.)
Why It Matters
Homeownership has historically been a reliable means of building wealth in the United States. However, recent increases in home values and borrowing costs have priced large segments of the population out of the market. The state of the housing market is not only impacting individuals and families, but also the broader economy. Residential investment accounts for as much as 5% of U.S. gross domestic product, and since mid-2020, the volume of new home sales in the U.S. has fallen by 33%.
50. Virginia
Households unable to afford a new, median priced home: 66.0% (2,297,977 total)
Median new home price: $461,542 (22nd lowest of 50 states)
Income needed to afford a typical new home: $137,496
Median household income: $85,873 (12th highest of 50 states)
49. Mississippi
Households unable to afford a new, median priced home: 67.6% (802,689 total)
Median new home price: $295,835 (the lowest of 50 states)
Income needed to afford a typical new home: $92,451
Median household income: $52,719 (the lowest of 50 states)
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