Potential Destruction From Dorian Spreads to 1.5 Million Homes

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When Hurricane Dorian was supposed to come ashore in the middle of the Atlantic Coast of Florida, hundreds of thousands of homes were at risk for significant damage. That estimate has tripled as it appears the storm will hit the U.S. further up the coast.

Real estate research firm CoreLogic forecast as many as 668,000 homes in Florida might have to be rebuilt. The projection was based on a Category 3 storm hitting someplace between Daytona Beach and Vero Beach, Florida. Dorian is now a Category 5 storm and it is forecast to make landfall as far north as North Carolina.

The storm’s turn North mean as many as another 996,000 homes may need to be rebuilt in South Carolina and North Carolina. The total cost of what CoreLogic terms reconstruction cost value (RCV) for the replacement of these homes would be as high as $230 billion. This means the cost would be nearly twice as high as the destruction of Hurricane Katrina, the most expensive storm in U.S. history.

CoreLogic’s estimates are lower depending on the strength of the storm, and its researchers have given a range of home destruction and rebuilding costs based on this:

North Carolina:
Cat 1: There are 42,272 homes with a combined (RCV) of $10.02B
Cat 2: 157,819 homes with a combined RCV of $32.34B
Cat 3: 363,075 homes with a combined RCV of $84.29B
Cat 4: 517,807 homes with a combined RCV of $120.49B
Cat 5: 600,377 homes with a combined RCV of $140.96B

South Carolina:
Cat 1: There are 42,791 homes with a combined (RCV) of $11.55B
Cat 2: 143,239 homes with a combined RCV of $37.20B
Cat 3: 236,772 homes with a combined RCV of $59.03B
Cat 4: 332,854 homes with a combined RCV of $79.87B
Cat 5: 396,589 homes with a combined RCV of $92.94B

When combined with the Florida figure, it means over 1.5 million homes face catastrophic destruction.

The figures are based on storm surge damage. They also assume 100% destruction of homes under what CoreLogic calls a “worst-case scenario” With Dorian racing toward the Atlantic Coast as a Category 5 storm, the figures are not out of the question.

For a picture of where Dorian may fall among the most powerful hurricanes of all time, 24/7 Wall St. has done an analysis of the top 70.

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