Live: Will GitLab Crush Q1 Earnings Tonight and Continue Its 40% Rally?

By Thomas Richmond Published Jun 2, 3:17PM EDT

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Quick Read

GTLB has beaten estimates nine straight quarters and surged 40% in a month, yet shares still sit 26% below year-ago levels.
Dollar-Based Net Retention has slipped four consecutive quarters from 122% to 118%, making stabilization tonight's most critical signal for investors.
This quarter delivers the first real test of GitLab's Duo Agent Platform and Credits usage-based pricing, with prediction markets putting a beat probability at 95%.
The analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 stocks and GitLab wasn't one of them. Get them here FREE.

Live Updates

What Wall Street Wants from GitLab's Q1 Earnings Report Tonight

6 minutes ago

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Investors are getting ready for updates on GitLab’s FY27 outlook. Management already set the bar with guidance of Q1 revenue of $253-$255 million, non-GAAP EPS of $0.20-$0.21, and a full-year revenue range of $1,099-$1,118 million, crossing the $1B threshold for the first time.

GitLab (NASDAQ:GTLB | GTLB Price Prediction) has historically guided conservatively, then beaten by mid-single digits on revenue and double digits on EPS, including a 30.43% EPS surprise last quarter.

What Wall Street Wants

FY27 revenue raised toward or above $1.12B
Dollar-based net retention stabilizing above 118%
Duo Agent and GitLab Credits monetization commentary

Bullish: raised top end, NDR inflection, Duo traction.

Bearish: guide held flat, NDR slipping, soft public-sector tone.

Given the 40.5% one-month rally, anything short of a clean raise risks a sell-the-news reaction.

GitLab's Recent Insider Activity After CEO's 6,000 Share Open Market Buy

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GitLab’s Recent Insider Activity

Over the past 90 days, 45 insider transactions hit the tape, with a skew toward dispositions and compensation grants. Co-founder Sytse Sijbrandij sold shares in the $24.09–$24.93 range in May after a large 15.1 million share Class B-to-Class A conversion.

Director Matthew Jacobson trimmed heavily in March near $22, while CEO Bill Staples made small open-market buys at roughly $21.30–$21.65. The net direction of this insider activity reads neutral.

Date	Insider	Title	Transaction	Shares	Value
5/18/26	Sijbrandij	Director	Sell	105,408	$24.93/sh
4/29/26	Staples	CEO	PSU Grant	469,263	$0
3/31/26	Staples	CEO	Buy	6,010	~$21.50/sh
3/27/26	Bostrom	Director	Sell	32,500	$20.32/sh
3/19/26	Jacobson	Director	Sell	~1.1M	~$22.37/sh

Directors took profits before the rally, while the CEO’s buy at $21 looks prescient with shares now near $32.53.

Topics Management Must Address:

Sustainability of the 21% non-GAAP operating margin, the path to FY2027 revenue of $1,099 to $1,118 million, and durability of 155 million-dollar ARR customers.

Other Factors

Buzzwords to listen for: agentic AI, intelligent orchestration, AI Catalog, human-AI collaboration, AI-native DevSecOps.

Red flags: DBNRR below 118%, soft Duo Credits uptake, cRPO deceleration from +24%, or any FY2027 guide trim after the 40.5% one-month rally.

Bull vs Bear Case for GitLab Ahead of Tonight's Q1 Earnings

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Bull Case

Beat-and-raise streak: GitLab has posted 9 consecutive earnings beats, and prediction markets price a 95.5% probability of another beat tonight versus the $0.20 consensus.
AI platform leverage: The GitLab Duo Agent Platform plus usage-based GitLab Credits opens new monetization, while large customers expand (155 $1M+ ARR customers, +26% YoY).
Capital return: An inaugural $400 million buyback and $1.3 billion in cash signal confidence.

Bear Case

Retention deceleration: Dollar-based net retention slid from 122% to 118% through FY26, with the CFO expecting trend down slightly before stabilizing.
High expectations: Shares rallied 40.5% in one month, and the Q1 guide of $253-$255 million implies sequential deceleration.
Sell-the-news risk: Day-of reactions were negative in 6 of the last 9 reports, including -6.18% last quarter despite a 30% EPS beat.
Competition and cash flow: Q4 free cash flow fell 32.7% YoY amid pressure from GitHub Copilot, Cursor, and Claude Code.

GitLab Q1 Pre-Earnings: A Chance to Change the Narrative

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GitLab has beaten estimates in the past nine quarters, which gives good reason to believe the stock can beat estimates tonight. The stock has rallied about 35% in the past month, after falling 5% intraday to just under $32 per share.

That disconnect makes this quarter especially important. New CFO Jessica Ross, who joined in January, will lead her first earnings call as investors look for evidence that growth trends are stabilizing.

Retention rates, large-customer growth, and early monetization of Duo Agent will be key focus areas. After a strong recent rebound, GitLab may need more than another earnings beat to convince investors that the story is turning around.

GitLab (NASDAQ: GTLB) reports Q1 FY2027 results tonight, June 2, after the market closes at around 4:05 PM ET. After a brutal year for the stock, shares have rallied sharply ahead of the report. Investors will be watching whether AI monetization can justify GitLab’s recent rebound.

A Rebound That Still Needs Proof

Last quarter, GitLab posted revenue of $260.40 million, up 23.2% year over year, and non-GAAP EPS of $0.30 against a $0.23 estimate. The company crossed $1 billion in total ARR and pushed non-GAAP operating margin to 21%, up from 18% a year earlier. The board also authorized an inaugural $400 million share buyback.

The market still sold the news, with shares dropping 6.18% on the day. Sentiment has flipped since, with the stock up 40.5% in the past month and 26.41% in the past week, even though the stock remains down 25.75% over the past year.

Consensus and Guidance Snapshot

Metric	Company Guidance	Implied YoY
Q1 FY27 Revenue	$253.0M–$255.0M	~18%
Q1 FY27 Non-GAAP EPS	$0.20–$0.21	~20%
FY27 Revenue	$1,099M–$1,118M	~16%
FY27 Non-GAAP EPS	$0.76–$0.80	flattish

Duo Agent Monetization and the Retention Problem

This is the first quarter that should show real traction from the GitLab Duo Agent Platform and the new GitLab Credits usage-based pricing model. CEO Bill Staples framed the opportunity bluntly last quarter, saying, “As code volume explodes, security, compliance, and governance are no longer optional; they’re existential.” Investors will be looking to see whether that conviction is reflected in customer adoption this quarter.

One of the most important numbers for me is Dollar-Based Net Retention. It has slipped four straight quarters, from 122% to 121% to 119% to 118%. Stabilizing this number would speak volumes.

Investors will also focus on enterprise traction. Customers spending over $100K in ARR reached 155 last quarter, up 26% year over year, while the $100K+ cohort grew 18%. Operating margin trajectory matters too, given Q1 FY26 came in at just 12%. Competitive commentary on GitHub Copilot and Cursor will set the tone, and Polymarket traders currently price the probability of a beat at 95.5%.

About the Author Thomas Richmond →

Thomas Richmond is a financial writer and content strategist with 5+ years of experience covering stocks and financial markets. He has published over 250 articles focused on individual stock analysis, helping investors better understand business fundamentals, stock valuations, and long-term opportunities.

Thomas previously served as a Content Lead at TIKR, a stock research platform, where he helped scale the company’s blog to hundreds of articles per month and contributed to a weekly newsletter reaching more than 100,000 investors.

He specializes in breaking down complex companies into clear, actionable insights for everyday investors, with a focus on fundamentals-driven research.

His work has also been featured on platforms including Seeking Alpha and Sure Dividend.

Outside of work, Thomas enjoys weight lifting and soccer.