Yahoo! (YHOO): Bad, But Not Awful

Yahoo!’s (YHOO) reported revenue excluding traffic acquisition costs (“TAC”) was $1,375 million for the fourth quarter of 2008, a 2% decrease compared with $1,403 million for the same period of 2007.

The net loss for the fourth quarter of 2008 was $303 million or $.22 per share, compared with net income of $206 million ,or $.15 per share, in the same quarter a year ago. Wall Street had expected EPS of $.13 on $1.37 billion in revenue.

For the first quarter of 2009, First Call estimates were for EPS of $.10  on revenue of $1.29 billion. The consensus estimates for the full year were $.42 EPS on $5.37 billion in sales.

The fourth quarter loss was clearly disappointing, but the earnings release did not say what the company expects for 2009.

Cash flow from operating activities was $321 million, a 48% decrease compared with $622 million for the same period of 2007. Free cash flow was $219 million, a 34% decrease compared with $330 million for the same period of 2007.

United States segment revenue was $1,338 million, a 2 percent increase compared with $1,313 million for the same period of 2007.

International segment revenue was $468 million, a 10 percent decrease compared with $519 million for the same period of 2007.

Yahoo! took a goodwill impairment charge of $488 million related to its international segment in the quarter.

Yahoo! said it expected revenue of $1.525 to $1.725 billion and operating income of $75 to $85 million in the first quarter.

If Yahoo!’s TAC is $425 million in Q1, revenue could fall as low as $1.1 billion. That would be a drop of more than 10% from the revenue in the first quarter of last year, and that would be awful.

Douglas A. McIntyre