Investing

DJIA 2011: Best Targets Imply DJIA 13,042 (BAC, CSCO, XOM, GE, HPQ, INTC, JPM, MCD, MRK, PFE, PG, WMT, DIA, VZ)

Can the Dow Jones Industrial Average rise 12.65% more in 2011 after gaining about 11% in 2010?   Our calculations show the the DJIA is likely to hit 13,042.06 in 2011.  That’s a 12. 65% rise. At the start of 2010, we gave a DJIA 11,455 target for 2010 based upon the same methodology

.  Our year-ago projection turned out to be a tad conservative as the DJIA closed 2010 out at 11,577.51.

We wanted to throw this out there to highlight DJIA giants like Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC), Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO), Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM), General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE), Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ), Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC), JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM), McDonald’s Corporation (NYSE: MCD), Merck & Co. (NYSE: MRK), Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE), Procter & Gamble Co. (NYSE: PG), and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT).

Our target for the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE: DIA) is $130.25 by the end of 2011. Our methodology generated a DIAMONDS target of roughly $114.32 for 2010 without taking any index/ETF price tracking changes and dividend payments into account.  The DIAMONDS closed out 2010 at a price of $115.63 per share.  Using stock market projections is often like a game of horseshoes or a bit like throwing hand grenades at your enemies… being close enough is generally all that matters.

We have a breakdown for the 30 DJIA stocks in the chart below.  We compiled the 2010 closing price, the implied price target using Thomson Reuters mean target objectives, what the implied upside would be for each target, a 52-week trading range in 2010 for each, and the dividend yield is on each.

Ticker Price Target Exp. Gain 52 Wk Range Dividend
AA $15.39 $17.01 10.5% 9.81 – 17.60 0.8%
AXP $42.92 $50.82 18.4% 36.60 – 49.19 1.7%
BA $65.26 $81.62 25% 54.80 – 76.00 2.6%
BAC $13.34 $17.74 32.9% 10.91 – 19.86 0.3%
CAT $93.66 $98.31 4.9% 50.50 – 94.89 1.9%
CVX $91.25 $95.12 4.2% 66.83 – 92.39 3.2%
CSCO $20.23 $24.45 20.8% 19.00 – 27.74 ?
DD $49.88 $54.79 9.8% 31.88 – 50.17 3.3%
DIS $37.51 $40.96 9.1% 28.71 – 38.00 1.1%
GE $18.29 $21.00 14.8% 13.75 – 19.70 3.1%
HD $35.06 $36.50 4.1% 26.62 – 37.03 2.7%
HPQ $42.10 $53.63 27.4% 37.32 – 54.75 0.8%
IBM $146.76 $152.53 3.9% 116.00 – 147.53 1.8%
INTC $21.03 $23.91 13.7% 17.60 – 24.37 3%
JNJ $61.85 $67.84 9.7% 56.86 – 66.20 3.5%
JPM $42.42 $52.61 24% 35.16 – 48.20 0.5%
KFT $31.51 $35.00 11.1% 27.09 – 32.67 3.6%
KO $65.77 $70.88 7.7% 49.47 – 65.88 2.7%
MCD $76.76 $86.00 12% 61.06 – 80.94 3.2%
MMM $86.30 $99.38 15.1% 68.96 – 91.49 2.4%
MRK $36.04 $42.20 17.1% 30.70 – 41.56 4.2%
MSFT $27.91 $32.60 16.8% 22.73 – 31.58 2.3%
PFE $17.51 $21.23 21.2% 14.00 – 20.36 4.6%
PG $64.33 $71.55 11.2% 39.37 – 65.38 3%
T $29.38 $30.93 5.3% 23.78 – 29.56 5.9%
TRV $55.71 $61.23 9.9% 47.35 – 57.55 2.6%
UTX $78.72 $87.13 10.7% 62.88 – 79.70 2.1%
VZ $35.78 $33.24 7.1% 25.99 – 36.00 5.5%
WMT $53.93 $60.80 12.7% 47.77 – 56.27 2.3%
XOM $73.12 $75.08 2.7% 55.94 – 73.69 2.4%