Is The Super Bowl Stock Market Indicator Alive & Well?

This week there have been many attempts to judge whether or not a New England Patriots win or a New York Giants win would be better for the stock market.  Frankly, if you are trusting this perhaps you are using the horoscopes for stock market readings as well.  If you are and if you manage money, it might be best to not share that strategy with your clients.  Just a guess, but if you have data proving otherwise then please send it in and we will show that the superstition and coincidence are far more relevant than the public thinks.  S&P Capital IQ paid someone to actually run this down…

• As far as rematch stats: the average annual S&P 500 return in a year that the Super Bowl pitted two teams who have faced off in a previous Championship game in a rematch is 19%.
• When a former champion returns and wins the Super Bowl, the average market return is 13%.
• When the game is played in cold-weather conditions the average annual return is 15%.
   

Patriots vs. Giants correlated stock returns: When New England wins, on average, the market falls by 2.1%. When they lose, the market advances an average of 5%. Including the Giants’ 2008 win amidst the global financial crisis, the average annualized stock return is a negative 0.5% for the three times the Giants were Super Bowl Champions.

Read Also: 8 Brands Wasting the Most on the Super Bowl

Here is a chart for your reading below.