Credit Suisse Sees YRC Worldwide Stock Falling to $7

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YRC Worldwide Inc. (NASDAQ: YRCW) was initiated in research coverage at Credit Suisse. The firm issued an Underperform rating on the trucking company’s shares, but the degree to which it is expected to underperform is massive. YRC’s shares closed at $31.47 on Friday, against a 52-week trading range of $5.01 to $36.99, and Credit Suisse reassigned a price target of $7 on this stock.

If Credit Suisse is correct, then YRC’s great turnaround is going to end poorly for its turnaround investors. What appears to have happened today is that the firm is resuming coverage after the departure of the primary analyst. Allison Landry assumed the coverage, and the Underperform rating comes with no changes to Credit Suisse’s earnings estimates at this time. Most of the firm’s ratings on peers and rivals are Neutral or Overweight.

For the current quarter, Credit Suisse says that it is the same as the consensus at -$0.93 EPS. For 2013, Credit Suisse has its earnings estimate at -$7.04 per share, versus the consensus EPS estimate of -$4.86. Where this call gets interesting is that next year’s earnings estimate from Credit Suisse is $0.03 per share, against a consensus estimate of -$0.23 EPS.

It is rather unusual to see an analyst issue such a strong downside price target, but perhaps it is simply because it is resuming the stock with no outlook changes. That being said, a drop to $7 from the $31.47 close on Friday is effectively calling for downside of about 78%.

For whatever this is worth, BB&T Capital Markets raised its rating to Buy from Hold and assigned a $40 price target back on July 1. There is a pretty big difference between $7 and $40, but that is what makes a horse race.