Investing

Meet the Preliminary 2017 Dogs of the Dow for Massive Dividends

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The end of 2016 has brought a serious change for the markets and for investors. It turns out that Donald Trump’s infrastructure and pro-growth initiatives have created a serious demand for industrial, infrastructure, consumer and growth stocks. The rise in Treasury yields has been massive, and that has put some pressure on some of the more defensive dividend stocks that have been a safe haven for investors over the past six years.

One thing that still holds true is that interest rates remain low by historical standards. The other truth that has held is that investors still love dividends. And companies that raise dividends year in and year out are even better, particularly if they have a solid growth story that will lead to dividend growth in the years ahead.

At the end of each year, investors look for opportunities and safe harbors to park their money for the year ahead. Investors who love dividends often consider the so-called Dogs of the Dow. This is the 10 highest yielding stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). While the Dogs are not always properly named, the logic behind this historically was that the higher yields might have implied less interest or lower performance — as a share price rises, its yield comes down on a static basis.

24/7 Wall St. has featured each Dog of the Dow on its own here. The average yield is well above 3%, and most companies are believed to have stable and/or growth on earnings in the years ahead. We have also featured an 11th pick due to the yield being so close to the 10th, and there were four stocks right behind them that also have been included.

For a past comparison, here were the 2016 Dogs of the Dow and the preliminary look at the 2015 Dogs of the Dow as well. Consensus data were taken from Thomson Reuters, and performance metrics and valuation metrics were taken from FINVIZ.

1. Verizon
> Yield: 4.49%

Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ) was last shown to have a 4.49% yield, even with shares up about 16% so far in 2016. The yield here is high enough above rival Dow dividend payers that it is a lock to be number one, barring any massive change.

Shares of Verizon recently closed at $51.49, with a consensus analyst price target of $52.73 and a 52-week trading range of $43.79 to $56.95.

2. Pfizer
> Yield: 3.79%

So far, Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) is ahead of Merck in dividend yields, but that is far from the norm at the end of each year. The issue is that Pfizer shares were up only about 2% so far in 2016, versus almost 19% for Merck. One problem for Pfizer is that it largely has been ignored by investors in the post-election rally as Trump has said he is concerned and not happy about drug price trends in America.

Shares of Pfizer recently closed at $31.70, with a consensus price target of $37.85 and a 52-week range of $28.25 to $37.39.

3. Chevron
> Yield: 3.73%

Exxon Mobil generally outyielded by rival Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX), but Chevron has gained by over 34% in 2016 versus about 18% for its peer. Chevron also has promised more dividend hikes in the past, and the oil price rise may allow that to continue.

Shares of Chevron last closed at $115.81. The stock has an analyst price target of $116.63 and a 52-week range of $75.33 to $118.20.

4. Cisco Systems
> Yield: 3.46%

Though it may be up 14% so far in 2016, Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) still is the king of dividends in technology, and it also keeps buying back stock as well. Cisco’s position has remained firm as a networking, data center and security leader, and it has raised dividends handily since it began paying out. Cisco even suggested more dividends and buybacks if it gets to repatriate its $60 billion or so in overseas cash.

Cisco shares recently closed at $30.06, with a 52-week range of $22.46 to $31.95 and a consensus price target of $33.11.

5. Exxon Mobil
> Yield: 3.37%

Even though Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) so far has underperformed Chevron in 2016, its 18% return year to date sure marks a handy difference from the drop in oil that was seen from late in 2014 into early 2016. Exxon also has a strong balance sheet and can keep raising its payout ahead. With CEO Rex Tillerson being tight with the administration, it seems that Exxon and the oil industry will have a good relationship with Washington, D.C., in 2017 and beyond.

Shares of Exxon recently closed at $89.00, with a consensus price target of $87.91 and a 52-week range of $71.55 to $95.55

6. IBM
> Yield: 3.36%

A laggard for years, International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE: IBM) did have enough earnings power to keep raising its dividend and buying back stock. Now IBM is the sixth highest yield of the Dow, and it has room to keep gradually raising its dividend ahead, even if the core of IBM is taking a backseat to its smaller new business initiatives.

Shares of IBM last closed at $166.52. The consensus price target is $156.62, and the 52-week range is $116.90 to $116.79.

7. Coca-Cola
> Yield: 3.33%

So far in 2016, Coca-Cola Co. (NYSE: KO) was up only 1% on last look, and its post-election move has not been that impressive, as investors right now prefer growth and infrastructure or those that can win more under the Trump plans.

Shares of Coca-Cola recently closed at $42.00. The consensus price target is $46.61, and the 52-week range is $39.88 to $47.13.

8. Caterpillar
> Yield: 3.22%

Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) has surprised just about everyone with its 46% gain so far in 2016. This was far from expected, and two-thirds of that gain was even before the post-election rally, when Trump talked up infrastructure galore. Its dividend yield would have even been stronger had the performance not been so high.

Caterpillar shares recently closed at $95.53, within a 52-week range of $56.36 to $97.40. The consensus price target is $83.67.

9. Procter & Gamble
> Yield: 3.18%

Procter & Gamble Co. (NYSE: PG) was last seen trading up about 9% so far in 2016, which may be a win considering that the post-election rally has favored growth and infrastructure rather than defensive high-yield stocks.

Shares last closed at $84.37. The stock has a consensus price target of $92.00 and a 52-week range of $74.46 to $90.33.

10. McDonald’s
> Yield: 3.10%

Though up roughly 6% in 2016, McDonald’s Corp. (NYSE: MCD) was flat going into the election. That means its recent rally of 6.3% has made McDonald’s an unexpected post-election winner. Maybe the thought is that more infrastructure workers means more fast-food diners — or maybe it is that McDonald’s has been wanting to hike its dividend further.

McDonald’s shares recently closed at $121.26, with a consensus price target of $127.76 and a 52-week range of $110.33 to $131.96.

11. Merck
> Yield: 3.07%

Despite an impressive yield, Merck & Co. Inc.’s (NYSE: MRK) overperformance in the market has made it yield much less than Pfizer now. It can keep raising its dividend ahead, and much may depend on how much it can repatriate and what its tax rate may be ahead.

Merck shares recently closed at $61.23. The 52-week range is $47.97 to $65.46. The consensus price target is $68.00.

Runners-Up

Four runners-up have been included as well because their yields were so close. It would require a 5% rally, or the last places in the 10 Dogs of the Dow would need to sell-off by 5%. With 13 full trading days left before year-end, that sort of change could take place. The four runners-up for the 2017 Dogs of the Dow were as follows:

  • Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) with a 2.91% yield
  • General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE), 2.89% yield
  • Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT), 2.85% yield
  • Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), 2.85% yield

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