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Earnings Previews: AMC, DraftKings, Nikola, Peloton, Square

Peloton
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We are halfway through a packed week of March quarter earnings, with heavy representation from energy exploration and production companies. Other top brands like Ferrari, Pfizer and T-Mobile also are reporting this week.

Looking at companies reporting earnings following Wednesday’s closing bell and before the opening bell Thursday, we have previewed AmBev, Norwegian Cruise, Uber, ViacomCBS and Zynga.

The five companies previewed in this story are scheduled to report earnings after Thursday’s close or before Friday’s opening bell.

AMC

Shares of theater operator AMC International Holdings Inc. (NYSE: AMC) dropped more than 70% of their value in 2020, while the nation’s movie houses were closed to help stop the spread of the coronavirus pandemic. In late January, the stock shot up more than 800% for 2021, as AMC was targeted by retail investors to run a squeeze on short sellers of its shares. Shares currently trade up 335% for 2021 to date.

On Tuesday, the company announced its annual shareholders meeting was being postponed until late July, presumably a date by which there might be some good news to report. AMC reports results after markets close Thursday.

Nine of 15 brokerages covering the company rate the shares Buy or Strong Buy. The recent trading price of around $9.25 is more than double the consensus price target of $4.44, while the upside potential to the high target of $13 is more than 40%.

For the March quarter, AMC is forecast to report a loss per share of $1.30 compared to a reported loss of $20.88 a year ago. Revenue is expected to drop by nearly 84% to $153.43 million. Results for the full year are forecast at a loss per share of $3.18 on revenue of $2.44 billion, an improvement of nearly 95%.

AMC currently is not expected to post positive earnings in 2021, 2022 or 2023. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $1.91 to $20.36. The average daily trading volume is 95.2 million shares.

Peloton

Fitness equipment maker Peloton Interactive Inc. (NASDAQ: PTON) posted a share price gain of more than 430% last year, but the stock has dropped about 43% for the year to date. The latest hit to the company’s fortunes was a Consumer Product Safety Commission warning issued in mid-April advising people to stop using the company’s Tread+ machines.

A longer-term problem the company hopes it has solved is the delay between taking an order and delivering a product. The recent acquisition of manufacturing firm Precor is expected to get deliveries moving again over the next few months. Peloton reports results after markets close Thursday.

Of 27 brokerage firms covering the stock, 24 rate the shares Buy or Strong Buy. At a current price of around $86.15, the stock’s upside potential to the consensus price target of $158.67 is 84%. At the high target of $190, upside potential reaches 120%.

Analysts expect Peloton to report a per-share loss of $0.12 for the March quarter, better than the $0.20 per share loss in the same quarter last year. Revenue is forecast to rise about 4.2% to $1.11 billion. In the fiscal year, the company is forecast to post earnings per share (EPS) of $0.31, nearly 200% greater than the $0.31 per share loss in 2019. Revenue is expected to rise by nearly 125% to $4.1 billion for the year.

At the current price, Peloton shares trade at 241.0 times expected 2021 EPS, 92.8 times estimated 2022 earnings and 45.8 times estimated 2023 earnings. The stock’s 52-week range is $35.21 to $171.09. The company does not pay a dividend and average daily trading volume is about 8.8 million shares. The ARK Next Generation Internet ETF owns less than 1% of Peloton’s outstanding shares, with a value of $132.5 million.


Square

Square Inc. (NYSE: SQ) also reports March quarter results after Thursday’s closing bell. Its share price ran up nearly 250% last year and is up more than 9% in 2021. The stock reached an all-time high in mid-February with a post-IPO gain of more than 2,000%. Square’s electronic payment tools and products lifted the company’s gross margins by nearly 45% last year, about even with its 2019 margin, but 20 points lower than its gross margin in 2015. Three of Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest exchange-traded funds own a combined$1.65 billion in the stock.

Sentiment among analysts is mixed on the stock, with 17 of 31 giving Square a Buy or Strong Buy rating. At a current price of around $237.50, the upside potential to a consensus price target of $270.31 is 13.8%. At the high target of $340, upside potential reaches 43%.

Analysts expect Square to post quarterly EPS of $0.16, a ninefold improvement year over year, on March quarter sales of $3.34 billion, up more than 140%. For the year, EPS is forecast at $1.24, a jump of 48%, on sales of $14.35 billion, up 51% year over year.

Square trades at 312.2 times expected 2021 EPS, 190.0 times estimated 2022 earnings and 123.2 times estimated 2023 earnings. The stock’s 52-week range is $67.12 to $283.19, and the average daily trading volume is about 11.1 million shares. Square does not pay a dividend.

DraftKings

Online sports betting company DraftKings Inc. (NASDAQ: DKNG) reports results before markets open Friday. Since its IPO last June, the company’s stock has added nearly 200%, after falling from a gain of around 270% in late March. Three ARK Invest funds hold a combined stake of $397 million in the company.

The return of big-time pro and college sports (and the betting the goes with those activities) is a clear win for the company. As more states legalize online sports betting (only 15 now do so, and DraftKings offers its betting service in only 12 of those), the company’s growth prospects look even better.

Of 25 brokerages covering the stock, 17 rate DraftKings a Buy or Strong Buy. At a current price of around $57.50, the shares trade at a discount of $16 (28%) to the consensus price target. At the high target of $105, upside potential on the stock is nearly 83%.

Analysts expect the company to report a net loss per share of $0.42, which would be 75% worse than a loss of $0.24 per share in last year’s March quarter. Revenue is expected to more than double to $236.19 million. For the full fiscal year, analysts are looking for a loss per share of $1.62 on sales of $1.05 billion, up 70% from 2020 revenue.

DraftKings is not expected to post a profit in 2021, 2022 or 2023. The stock’s post-IPO range is $21.75 to $74.38, and the company does not pay a dividend. The average daily trading volume totals 15.5 million shares.

Nikola

Hydrogen and hybrid-electric truck maker Nikola Inc. (NASDAQ: NKLA) also reports results first thing Friday morning. Since its June 2020 IPO, the shares have risen to trade at nearly 140% above the IPO price and now trade near an all-time low set last month nearly 70% below the IPO price. A short seller’s report in July absolutely hammered the stock and forced the resignation of the CEO and founder.

On Wednesday, the company said it would restate its results for 2020 to bring the company into line with the SEC’s new interpretation of accounting for warrants in SPAC reverse merger transactions. Nikola said the restatement will show an increase of $7 million to $8 million liabilities and a smaller net loss of $12 million to $15 million for last year.

Analysts remain cautious on the stock, with six of seven rating the shares a Hold. At a current price of around $10.50, the upside potential is 84% to the consensus price target of $19.33. At the high target of $25, the upside potential increases to 138%.

Nikola is expected to post a per-share loss of $0.27 for the quarter, but no revenue estimate is available, likely because the company is not expected to report any revenue for the quarter. The full-year loss is forecast at $1.12 with $22.07 million in revenue.

Like two other stocks in this preview, Nikola is not expected to post a profit in any of the next three fiscal years. The stock’s 52-week range is $9.37 to $93.99. The average daily trading volume is 13.1 million shares.

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