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Earnings Previews: Airbnb, Peloton, Square, Uber

For the company’s first quarter of fiscal 2022, analysts expect revenue to total $808.07 million, down 13.7% sequentially but up 6.7% year over year. Analysts also expect a loss per share of $1.14, more than double the $0.65 loss per share in the prior quarter and way below the per-share profit of $0.23 in the same quarter last year. For the full fiscal year, analysts currently estimate a loss per share of $2.18, compared to a loss of $0.05 per share last year, on revenue of $5.36 billion, up by a third.

Peloton is not expected to post a profit in either 2022 or 2023. Based on the current share price, the stock trades at 166.3 times estimated 2024 earnings of $0.56 per share. The stock’s 52-week range is $80.48 to $171.09, and Peloton does not pay a dividend.

Square

Over the past 12 months, Square Inc. (NYSE: SQ) stock has added 61.5% to its share price. Since January of 2020, the stock is up nearly 300%. The company’s $29 billion acquisition of Australia’s Afterpay is expected to close early in 2022, and that may only add to Square’s luster. Its per-customer acquisition cost is less than $5, a startlingly low number. And while CEO Jack Dorsey (also CEO of Twitter) is a big fan of Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency doesn’t do much to help Square’s bottom line. Three of Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest ETFS currently own about 5.4 million shares of Square stock. That’s more than a million fewer than the funds held at the end of the June quarter.

Analysts are mostly bullish on the shares, with 27 of 38 brokerages putting a rating of Buy or Strong Buy on the stock. Another eight rate the stock a Hold. At a price of around $250 a share, the upside potential based on a median price target of $303 is 21.2%. At the high price of $380, the upside potential is 32.5%.

Third-quarter revenue is forecast at $4.48 billion, down 4.3% sequentially and up 48% year over year. Adjusted EPS are expected to come in at $0.37, down 44% sequentially and up 44% year over year. For the full year, current estimates call for EPS of $1.85, up 120%, on sales of $19.04 billion, up 100%.

Square stock trades at 138.1 times expected 2021 earnings, 109.2 times estimated 2022 earnings and 79.5 times estimated 2023 earnings. The stock’s 52-week range is $162.15 to $289.23. Square does not pay a dividend.

Uber

Over the past year, shares of Uber Technologies Inc. (NYSE: UBER) have added almost a third to their price. Rival ride-hailing firm Lyft reported triple the number of airport rides compared to last year, and increases in other local rides, likely due to an increase of 60% year over year in the number of drivers. That has pumped up hopes for Uber and was pushing the stock up by around 7% in advance of Thursday afternoon’s announcement.

Analysts are solidly bullish on Uber. Of 45 brokerages covering the stock, well over half (29) give the stock a Buy rating and another 10 have a Strong Buy rating on the shares. Five rate the stock at Hold. At a price of around $46, the potential upside based on a median price target of $68 is about 48%. At the high target of $82, the upside potential is 78.3%.

The consensus revenue estimate for the third quarter is $4.41 billion, up 12.2% sequentially and 41% year over year. Uber is expected to post a loss per share of $0.16 in the quarter, compared with a prior quarter loss of $0.17 and last year’s $0.43 per share loss. For the full year, analysts expect a loss per share of $0.07, compared with last year’s $2.86 per share loss, on revenue of $16.08 billion, up 44%.

The stock trades at 296.3 times estimated 2022 earnings and 35.4 times estimated 2023 earnings. The stock’s 52-week range is $38.08 to $64.05. Uber does not pay a dividend.

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