Earnings Previews: Coinbase, Nio, Plug Power, 23andMe

Plug Power

After rising to a 12-month high in late January during the meme-stock rocket ride that took the stock up more than 280%, hydrogen fuel cell maker Plug Power Inc. (NASDAQ: PLUG) is trading about 120% higher since November of last year. Since early October, the shares have added about 70%, largely on the since-realized hope of a U.S. infrastructure bill that includes funds for building out the country’s hydrogen availability. Combined with raised guidance, the company (and its investors) have high hopes.

Of 25 analysts covering the stock, 18 rate the shares a Buy or Strong Buy and another six have a Hold rating. At a price of around $41.30, the implied gain based on a median price target of $42 is 1.7%. At the high target of $78, the implied gain is 89%.

Third-quarter revenue is forecast at $144.18 million, up nearly 16% sequentially and about 35% year over year. Analysts are forecasting an adjusted loss per share of $0.08, better than the $0.18 loss per share in the prior quarter but worse than the year-ago loss of $0.04. For the full year, Plug Power is expected to post a loss per share of $0.43, compared to a loss last year of $0.26, on sales of $494.14 million, up from a negative $100.47 million in the prior year. The negative sales were due to accelerated vesting of certain warrants owned by Amazon.com NV Investment Holdings.

Plug Power is not expected to post a profit in 2021, 2022 or 2023. The enterprise value-to-sales multiple for 2021 is forecast at 36.9. For 2022 and 2023, the multiples are expected to be 22.5 and 14.8, respectively. The stock’s 52-week range is $18.47 to $75.49 and Plug Power does not pay a dividend.

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23andMe

Home DNA test kit maker 23andMe Holding Co. (NASDAQ: ME) came public in late November of last year. Shares jumped 20% on the first day of trading and had soared to a gain of around 80% by early February. As of Monday morning, the stock was up more than 39% since the IPO. The company reports results Wednesday morning.

The company is planning to use the genetic data it has collected (and will be collecting) to create medicines based on that data by linking diseases with particular genes. As Bloomberg pointed out in a story last week, the company is following a proven business plan:”collect all the data, derive whatever insights you can, and find an adjacent line of business with the potential to yield much bigger profits.” That has been Google’s path to a $2 trillion valuation.

Only two analysts cover the stock. One has a Buy rating while the other has a Strong Buy rating. At a price of $13.60 (up 5.7% in Monday trading), the stock has outrun its median price target of $12.50 and its high target of $13.

For the company’s second-quarter of fiscal 2022, analysts expect sales of $54.3 million, down about 2.6% sequentially, and a loss per share of $0.15. For the full year, the adjusted loss per share is expected to be $0.58 on sales of $257.29 million. Prior data is unavailable.

23andMe is not expected to post a profit in 2022, 2023 or 2024. The enterprise value-to-sales multiple is expected to be 19.9 in 2022. Based on estimated earnings for 2023 and 2024, multiples are 16.2 and 14.1, respectively. The stock trades in a post-IPO range of $208 to $429.54. The stock’s post-IPO range is $7.01 to $18.16, and the company does not pay a dividend.