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Live: Will Intuitive Surgical Smash Tonight’s Q2 Earnings After 29% YTD Decline?
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Quick Read
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ISRG enters Q2 earnings with shares down 31% year to date as procedure growth decelerates from 2025's 18% pace toward a lower FY26 band.
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Da Vinci 5 claimed 232 of 431 Q1 placements and runs 11% higher utilization than Xi, making placement mix the critical H2 systems revenue driver.
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Live Updates
Stay On This Site to Receive Live $ISRG Q2 Earnings Updates
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This live blog is being updated by Thomas Richmond, a 24/7 Wall St. contributor. You’ll get expert analysis of Intuitive Surgical’s Q2 earnings.
Simply stay on this page, and new updates will appear below automatically. We expect Intuitive Surgical to release earnings shortly after 4:00 p.m. ET.
What Would Send ISRG Stock Higher After Tonight's Q2 Earnings
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The current full-year framework for Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ:ISRG | ISRG Price Prediction) calls for 13.5% to 15.5% da Vinci procedure growth and a 67.5% to 68.5% non-GAAP gross margin, embedding a 1.0% tariff drag.
Management historically guides conservatively, then walks the range up: 2025 started at 15.5%–17% and ended at 18%.
Polymarket’s crowd assigns a 46.5% probability to Q2 procedure growth landing in the 15%–17.5% range, with 34.5% for a sub-15% result.
Bullish scenario: full-year procedure guide raised above 15.5%, margin biased toward 68%+, and softer tariff commentary.
Bearish scenario: unchanged procedure range, margin drift toward 67.5%, and hospital capex caution.
With four straight EPS beats averaging 18.66% most recently, the headline number matters less than the raise.
Top 5 Analyst Questions Ahead of ISRG's Q2 Earnings Tonight
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With Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ:ISRG) set to report Q2 earnings tonight shortly after 4:00 PM ET, here’s the framework for tonight’s call.
Top 5 Analyst Questions
- Does FY2026 da Vinci procedure guidance of 13.5%–15.5% get raised after crowd bets favor 15%–17.5% growth?
- Any read-through from HCA’s July 14 surgical volume warning?
- Is the 1.0% tariff drag holding?
- da Vinci 5 mix and ASP trajectory after 232 placements in Q1?
- Buyback pace after $1.1B repurchased in Q1?
Key Topics and Buzzwords
- Listen for: “quintuple aim,” “installed base leverage,” “usage-based leasing,” “capital constrained customers,” force feedback EU approval.
- Ion sustainability after 39% Q1 procedure growth; direct sales transition in Italy, Spain, Portugal.
Red Flags
- Procedure miss versus guide, tariff drag expansion, gross margin cut below 67.5%, Hugo/Ottava share commentary, or hospital capex softness.
Intuitive Surgical Q2 Earnings Preview: Slowing Procedure Growth and Tariffs Take Center Stage
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Intuitive Surgical’s (NASDAQ: ISRG) second-quarter report tonight will test whether the company can defend its premium valuation as procedure growth slows and tariffs pressure margins.
The biggest number to watch is procedure growth. After expanding 18% in 2025, management currently expects growth of 13.5% to 15.5% in fiscal 2026.
Investors will also be watching the mix of da Vinci 5 placements and utilization gains, which could determine the strength of the systems revenue narrative heading into the second half.
Management has estimated that tariffs will result in a drag equal to approximately 1% of revenue due to exposure across Mexico, Germany, and China. Any additional pressure could weigh on gross margins.
Shares have declined 21.92% over the past year. A guidance increase tonight could reinvigorate the growth-at-a-reasonable-price case, but a reduction in margin estimates would likely cement the stock’s ongoing derating.
Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ:ISRG) reports Q2 earnings results at 4:40 PM ET tonight after the bell. The robotic surgery leader enters the earnings report tonight with a $142.05 billion market cap, while shares are down 29.3% year to date.
Momentum Meets a Valuation Reset
Q1 delivered a fourth straight beat, with non-GAAP EPS of $2.50 topping the $2.11 consensus and revenue of $2.77 billion growing 23% year over year. Yet the stock has fallen 13.81% since that April 21 filing.
Q1 gross margin expanded to 67.8% from 66.4%, with da Vinci procedures up 16% and Ion procedures up 39%. Management nudged FY26 procedure growth to 13.5%-15.5%, still a step down from 2025.
The stock trades at about $400.55 as of 2:40 PM ET, against an average analyst price target of $558.01.
Consensus and Crowd Estimates
| Metric | Value | Frame |
|---|---|---|
| FY26 da Vinci procedure growth | 13.5%-15.5% | Guidance |
| FY26 non-GAAP gross margin | 67.5%-68.5% | Guidance |
| Q2 procedure growth (crowd) | 15%-17.5% at 36.5% | Polymarket |
| Forward P/E | 39 | Valuation |
Polymarket traders assign a 63% combined probability to Q2 procedure growth landing between 12.5% and 17.5%, and only 8% odds to a sub-12.5% miss. The setup skews toward in-range execution rather than a blowout.
Margins, Tariffs, and da Vinci 5 Take Center Stage
Tonight, I’ll be watching ISRG’s gross margin closely. CFO Jamie Samath flagged that oil and memory input costs will hit harder later in the year, saying “we do expect those to have a greater unfavorable impact in the remainder of the year.” Any drift above the 1.0% of revenue tariff assumption would compress the margin story.
Investors will also focus on da Vinci 5 placement mix. Q1 delivered 232 da Vinci 5 systems out of 431 total placements, with da Vinci 5 utilization running 11% above Xi. That mix drives ASPs and downstream I&A revenue.
International tone matters too. Rosa cited “ongoing challenges in China and Japan,” with new Japanese reimbursements for 7 procedures beginning June 2026. I’ll track whether early June signal reads bullish. Ion momentum, SP procedure growth of 68%, and Force Feedback rollout round out the watchlist.
Earnings History
| Quarter | EPS Surprise | 1-Day Move | 1-Week Move | 30-Day Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | +18.66% | -0.99% | -6.16% | -9.41% |
| Q4 2025 | +11.51% | +0.92% | -3.77% | -3.40% |
| Q3 2025 | +20.65% | +4.61% | +2.00% | +6.56% |
| Q2 2025 | +13.22% | -2.66% | -0.29% | -5.14% |
On average, shares moved -0.50% one week after earnings across the past year.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Thomas Richmond is a financial writer and content strategist with 5+ years of experience covering stocks and financial markets. He has published over 250 articles focused on individual stock analysis, helping investors better understand business fundamentals, stock valuations, and long-term opportunities.
Thomas previously served as a Content Lead at TIKR, a stock research platform, where he helped scale the company’s blog to hundreds of articles per month and contributed to a weekly newsletter reaching more than 100,000 investors.
He specializes in breaking down complex companies into clear, actionable insights for everyday investors, with a focus on fundamentals-driven research.
His work has also been featured on platforms including Seeking Alpha and Sure Dividend.
Outside of work, Thomas enjoys weight lifting and soccer.
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