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Earnings Previews: BP, Marathon Petroleum, Paramount Global, Pfizer

Here is a look at four companies set to report quarterly results before markets open on Tuesday.

BP

Shares of integrated oil giant BP PLC (NYSE: BP) have performed well over the past year but trail far behind Chevron and Exxon, which are up 62% and 61%, respectively. BP’s 12-month increase was just below 20%. A massive $24 billion charge against first-quarter results for shedding the company’s 19.75% stake in Russian oil giant Rosneft squashed any gains the stock may have made. Since February 18, Chevron stock is up more than 20%, while BP shares are down about 7.6%. High crude oil prices and an expected boost in the stock buyback program could limit the damage.

Of 22 brokerages covering the fossil-fuel giant, 16 have a Buy or Strong Buy rating and the others rate the shares at Hold. At a recent price of around $29.50 a share, the implied upside to a median price target of $36.50 is 23.7%. At the high price target of $49, the upside potential is 66.1%.

The consensus estimate for first-quarter revenue is $53.2 billion, which would be up 5.4% sequentially and 54.0% higher year over year. Adjusted EPS are forecast at $1.37, up 11.3% sequentially and up a stupendous 954% year over year. For the 2022 fiscal year, analysts expect BP to report EPS of $5.627, up 46.3%, on sales of $208.35 million, up 32.1%.

BP stock trades at 0.9 times expected 2022 EPS, 0.9 times estimated 2023 of $5.31 and 1.0 times estimated 2024 EPS of $4.89. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $22.64 to $34.16. BP pays an annual dividend of $1.30 (yield of 4.42%). Total shareholder return for the past year was 19.7%.

Marathon Petroleum

Oil refiner and marketer Marathon Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: MPC) posted an all-time high share price last week and has had a stock price gain of nearly 68% over the past year. That is a far larger increase than rival Phillips 66’s 17% gain. Even with high input (crude oil) prices, demand for refined products is strong, and the big refiners can make a profit where they were once stymied by crude prices. The question now is who will remain standing once the music stops.

Of 17 brokerages covering Marathon, 15 have a Buy or Strong Buy rating and the rest rate the stock at Hold. At a share trading price of around $89.25, the stock’s upside potential based on a median price target of $96 is about 7.6%. At the high target of $115, the upside potential is 28.9%.

First-quarter revenue is forecast at $32.46 billion, down 8.8% sequentially but up about 41.9% year over year. Analysts are estimating EPS of $1.28, compared to a loss of $0.20 in the year-ago quarter. For the full 2022 fiscal year, the consensus estimates call for EPS of $7.37, up 200%, on revenue of 139.12 billion, up 15%.

Marathon Petroleum’s stock trades at 12.1 times expected 2022 EPS, 14.2 times estimated 2023 earnings of $6.27 and 13.6 times estimated 2024 earnings of $6.55 per share. The stock’s 52-week range is $50.19 to $93.168. Marathon pays an annual dividend of $2.32 (yield of 2.59%). Total shareholder return for the past 12 months was 64.6%.

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