Investing

Earnings Previews: AMC Entertainment, Cronos, Hecla Mining, Li Auto, Peloton

Li Auto

Beijing-based electric vehicle maker Li Auto Inc. (NASDAQ: LI) has seen its share price gain about 11.6% over the past 12 months. At its peak during that period, the stock traded up more than 80%. The company will report results before markets open on Tuesday.

The company delivered nearly 32,000 vehicles in the first quarter, as deliveries were hampered by new outbreaks of COVID-19 in Changzhou where Li sources parts and assembles its cars. The company has also been identified as one of more than 80 China-based companies that may be kicked off U.S. stock exchanges for failing to meet recently enacted federal accounting requirements. Li has until May 12 to dispute its placement on the list.

Of 21 brokerages covering the firm, all but one have a Buy or Strong Buy rating. At a share price of around $21.70, the upside potential based on a median price target of $41.00 is almost 90%. At the high price target of $54.00, the upside potential is 149%.

First-quarter revenue is forecast at $1.42 billion, down 14.7% sequentially and 60.3% year over year. Analysts have forecast EPS of $0.03, following a per-share profit of $0.11 in the prior quarter and better than the per-share loss of $0.03 in the same quarter last year. For fiscal 2022, current estimates call for EPS of $0.07, up 13.1%, on sales of $7.75 billion, up about 82.5%.

The stock trades at 297.1 times expected 2022 EPS, 67.2 times estimated 2023 earnings of $0.32 and 33.8 times estimated 2024 earnings of $0.64 per share. The stock’s 52-week range is $15.98 to $37.45, and the company does not pay a dividend. Total shareholder return in the past year is 15.4%.

Peloton

Shares of fitness product maker Peloton Interactive Inc. (NASDAQ: PTON) have declined by 82.4% over the past 12 months. The company has been unable to parlay its big gains during the pandemic into a sustainable model. On Thursday, The Wall Street Journal reported that the company is exploring a sale of 15% to 20% of the company to raise capital for a turnaround. In addition to the usual suspects, a large tech firm like Amazon or Apple might be interested. Peloton reports quarterly results first thing Tuesday morning.

Analysts have remained mostly bullish on the company. Of 30 brokerages covering the shares, 16 have a Buy or Strong Buy rating, while another 12 rate the stock at Hold. At a share price of around $17.00, the upside potential based on a median price target of $45.00 is almost 165%. At the high target of $60, the upside potential is 253%.

For the company’s third quarter of fiscal 2022, which ended in March, analysts expect revenue to total $969.82 million. That would be 14.5% lower sequentially and down 23.0% year over year. Analysts also expect a loss per share of $0.94, better than the $1.22 loss per share in the prior quarter and much worse than the break-even finish in the year-ago quarter. For the full fiscal year ending in June, analysts estimate a loss per share of $3.88, compared to a loss of $0.05 per share last year, on revenue of $3.73 billion, down about 7.2%.


Peloton is not expected to post a profit in 2022, 2023 or 2024. The stock’s estimated 2022 sales to enterprise value multiple is 1.5 times. That multiple drops to 1.4 in 2023 and 1.2 in 2024. The stock’s 52-week range is $16.67 to $129.70, and Peloton does not pay a dividend. Total shareholder return over the past year is negative 79.7%.

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