Earnings Previews: Affirm, AMC Entertainment, Disney

AMC Entertainment

Shares of AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (NYSE: AMC) have dropped by more than 86% over the past 12 months. The stock’s 52-week high was posted exactly a year ago, so it has been a rough year for the meme stock favorite, even including a couple of spikes in the share price. Since issuing preferred shares (NYSE: APE), those shares have dropped nearly 74%. The company noted in August that the September quarter lacked big movie releases and would have a negative effect on revenues. That appears to be what investors expect too.

AMC is not an analyst’s favorite. Just eight brokerages cover the stock, and none has a Buy or Strong Buy rating. Only three rate the shares at Hold. At a price of around $5.50 a share, the stock trades more than three times higher than its median price target of $1.60. At the high price target of $7.50, the upside potential is 36.4%.

Third-quarter revenue is forecast at $960.97 million, down 17.6% sequentially but 25.9% higher year over year. Analysts expect AMC to report a loss per share in the quarter of $0.24, worse than the prior quarter’s loss of $0.20 per share and better than last year’s quarterly loss of $0.44 per share. For the full 2022 fiscal year, AMC is expected to post a loss per share of $1.19, compared with last year’s loss of $2.50 per share. Revenue is forecast to rise by 63.3% to $4.13 billion.

AMC is not expected to post a profit in 2022, 2023 or 2024. The enterprise value to sales multiple is expected to be 3.0 in 2022. Based on average estimated sales of $4.78 billion and $4.99 billion for 2023 and 2024, respectively, the multiple is 2.6 for 2023 and 2.5 for 2024. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $5.42 to $45.95. Total shareholder return for the past year was negative 77.9%.


Over the past 12 months, Walt Disney Co. (NYSE: DIS) has seen its share price decline by 6.6%. It appeared that a turnaround may have been in the cards when the stock posted a 52-week high in mid-July, but hopes evaporated. Since then, the shares have declined by more than 41%. The latest humbling followed last week’s update from streaming service Roku that warned that ad spending likely would be lower during the holiday quarter. That was not good news for Disney. The company is expected to announce an ad-supported Disney+ variation early next month.

Analysts remain bullish on the stock. Of 29 brokerages covering the firm, 24 have a Buy or Strong Buy rating and the rest rate the stock at Hold. At a share price of around $99.60, the upside potential based on a median price target of $136.90 is about 37.4%. At the high target of $229.00, the upside potential is nearly 130%.

Fourth fiscal quarter revenue is forecast at $21.44 billion, down 0.3% sequentially and up 15.7% year over year. Adjusted EPS are pegged at $0.56, down 48.5% sequentially and 47.4% higher year over year. For the 2022 fiscal year that ended in September, analysts expect Disney to report EPS of $3.79, up 63%, on sales of $84.43 billion, up 25.2%.

Disney stock trades at 26.3 times expected 2022 earnings, 18.8 times estimated 2023 earnings of $5.30 per share and 15.6 times estimated 2024 earnings of $6.38 per share. The stock’s 52-week range is $90.23 to $179.25. Total shareholder return for the past year was negative 43.3%.

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