The “buy the dip” financial news teleprompter readers and the 35-year-old portfolio managers who have never seen a market crash are pounding the table that stocks are still going to the moon. Market veterans and “Hey Boomer” professionals have seen this show before. In 1987, the Dow Jones industrials plunged a stunning 22% in one day. Today, an equivalent drop in the venerable index would be almost 9,400 points. We got a glimpse of what may be coming later this year in February, and it could get ugly. Very ugly.
From 1929 to 1932, the stock market plummeted a stunning 83%, and many lost everything. That debacle caused the Great Depression, which ended only when we entered World War II in 1941.
From 2007 to 2009, during the height of the mortgage and real estate collapse, which brought us dangerously close to another depression, the market dropped a massive 57%. When stocks finally bottomed at an ominous intraday low of 666 on the S&P 500 on March 9, 2009, we placed the floor for the longest bull market in history, which ended in January 2022. The market rally promptly started back up in October of that year after a swift correction and continues to this day.
Though devastating, a market crash, or severe correction, is workable if you are in your 40s and making peak money. However, for baby boomers who have enjoyed unprecedented gains over the past 35 years, being overweighted to the stock market now is like picking up nickels in front of a bulldozer, and it could be a fatal shot to their retirement savings. Look at this data we collected on the effect of major market crashes. The recovery time can be much longer than recessions or regular bear markets, sometimes taking decades:
- The 1929 crash lasted until 1932, and the Dow did not fully recover until November 1954.
- The dot-com stock correction/crash in March 2000 took 13 years to recover fully.
- The Panic of 1907 took the stock market 20 years to return to its pre-crash level.
The youngest baby boomers turned 60 last year, while the oldest are closing in on 80 in 2026. Moving most of your investments out of S&P 500 index funds and concentrating on ultra-safe investments with the principal protected and guaranteed makes sense now with the stock market resting at a vulnerable precipice. This is what LPL Research noted in January regarding market corrections:
With the stock market nearing record-high levels, it might seem premature to talk about a potential correction — characterized by a market drawdown of 10% or more but less than 20%. However, bull markets are not linear, and corrections, though relatively improbable, are always possible. According to our friends at Ned Davis Research, a correction has occurred every 1.1 years going back to 1928. Furthermore, the last time the market entered an official correction was 309 trading days ago, spanning well beyond the average number of 173 trading days without a correction since 1928.
The bottom line for baby boomers and retirees who cannot afford a big market correction or, God forbid, a crash, is that now is the time to move a substantial amount of assets to guaranteed investments. We focus on two ideas that are the safest now. We purposely avoided certificates of deposit (CDs) as while some do pay monthly, the longer-dated CDs offered by many banks will charge a penalty for an early withdrawal of funds, so if you have an emergency and have to get at your money, you may receive less back than you put in. Make sure the terms are clear if you opt to buy one.
Exchange-Traded Treasury Bill Funds
Unlike open-end mutual funds, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) trade on major exchanges like stocks. They own financial assets such as stocks, bonds, currencies, debts, futures contracts, and commodities such as gold bars. One massive advantage ETFs have is that they can be bought or sold anytime the markets are trading. In addition, there is a large market and demand from investors for exchange-traded funds.
One of the funds we highly recommend at 24/7 Wall St. is the SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF (NYSE: BIL). The fund invests substantially all, but at least 80%, of its total assets in the securities comprising the index and in securities that the adviser determines to have economic characteristics substantially identical to the financial characteristics of the securities comprising the index. The index measures the performance of public obligations of the U.S. Treasury that have a remaining maturity of greater than or equal to 1 month and less than 3 months.
The State Street website says this when describing the fund:
- The SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF seeks to provide investment results that, before fees and expenses, correspond generally to the price and yield performance of the Bloomberg 1-3 Month U.S. Treasury Bill Index
- Seeks to provide exposure to publicly issued U.S. Treasury Bills that have a remaining maturity between 1 and 3 months
- Short duration fixed income is less exposed to fluctuations in interest rates than longer duration securities
- Rebalanced on the last business day of the month
The fund currently pays a 5.01% yield and a monthly dividend /interest payment of $0.3828. Investors need to know that the price of the ETF will drop by that amount when the dividend is paid. At $91.47 at the time of this writing, that is a tiny amount each month.
With a tiny 0.14% expense ratio, and daily liquidity, it is perfect for those who cannot afford a massive loss of principal.
High-Yield Money Market Funds
A high-yield money market fund, or high-yield savings account (HYSA), is an investment that aims to generate income while keeping the principal relatively stable and liquid. It is considered a low-risk investment and can have higher interest rates than savings accounts. Money market funds invest in short-term securities, such as government securities, commercial paper, and corporate debt.
They are intended to be safe and not lose value. Best of all, you can withdraw cash from a money market fund without penalties. In addition, they pay interest monthly and the FDIC insures them up to $250,000.
Here are the rates from some well-known companies that we recommend:
- American Express High Yield Savings, 3.70%
- PNC Bank High Yield Savings, 3.95%
- CIT Bank Platinum Savings, 4.30% on balances of $5,000 and more
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