Second Quarters Have Been Tough for Netflix

We’ll be slowing down updates as Netflix’s ‘Earnings Interview’ starts (see our prior update to stream it starting at 4:45 p.m. ET).

However, it’s worth taking a step back and studying the big takeaway from these Netflix earnings.

The company issued strong earnings with revenue and EPS last quarter surpassing expectations, guiding to a beat next quarter, AND raising full-year expectations.

Normally, that kind of earnings release would lead to significant gains.

However, Netflix has been one of the top-performing stocks in the market and trades at about 50X this year’s earnings. Put in that light, little Netflix could have said today would lead to an outsized reaction. 

The stock is currently down about .4% in after-hours trading after rising 1.9% during today’s trading. Overall, that means Netflix will likely open tomorrow still trading above where it closed the day before.

Netflix issued a great quarter, its stock has just been on an epic run.

Instead of a conference call, Netflix hosts a ‘Earnings Interview.’ We’ve embedded it below for you to follow along with our earnings live blog.

The ‘Earnings Interview’ starts at 4:45 p.m. ET.

The show was mentioned eight different times in Netflix’s Letter to Shareholders!

Netflix has a stacked programming slate in the back half of the year that includes the final season of Stranger Things and movies like Happy Gilmore 2. 

Netflix will continue trading for about 50 times earnings (2025 estimates) after today’s earnings call if its current share price holds into tomorrow. With the stock trading for these high levels, let’s look at the growth rates the company is delivering.

Netflix is now trading down about 1% as of 4:17 p.m. ET.

When you consider that the stock rose 1.9% in today’s trading, the stock still trades above where it closed yesterday. 

Netflix Inc. reported strong financial results for Q2 2025, with revenue increasing by 16% year-over-year to $11.08 billion, slightly surpassing guidance due to favorable foreign exchange impacts.

The company’s operating income rose to $3.77 billion, reflecting a 45% increase from the previous year, and the operating margin expanded to 34% from 27% in Q2 2024.

Diluted EPS was $7.19, marking a 47% year-over-year growth. Netflix’s performance was bolstered by increased membership, higher subscription pricing, and ad revenue.

The company also raised its full-year 2025 revenue forecast to $44.8-$45.2 billion, up from the previous $43.5-$44.5 billion, driven by currency fluctuations and business momentum.

Netflix continues to expand its content offerings and ad tech platform, with significant investments in global content production and strategic partnerships.

“We’re optimistic heading into the second half of the year, with a standout slate that includes Wednesday S2, the Stranger Things finale, the highly anticipated Canelo-Crawford live boxing match, Adam Sandler’s Happy Gilmore 2, Kathryn Bigelow’s A House of Dynamite and Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein.” – Greg Peters, CEO

As of 4:08 p.m. ET, Netflix shares are down about 1.8%. The company beat last quarter and raised full year guidance, but expectations were running very high given Netflix’s recent share gains.

Here’s the most important part of today’s earnings release, Netflix raised 2025 revenue guidance.

“We now forecast 2025 revenue of $44.8-$45.2B, up from $43.5-$44.5B, and a F/X neutral operating margin of 29.5% (vs. 29% previously), or 30% on a reported basis. Our higher forecast 1 primarily reflects the weakening of the US dollar vs. most other currencies, plus healthy member growth and ad sales.”

More numbers for Netflix.

• Q3 sales of $11.52 billion (above Wall Street expectations of $11.26 billion)
• Q3 EPS of $6.87 (Wall Street expectations were $6.66)

Here are the most important numbers.

• Revenue: $11.08 billion (estimates $11.06 billion)
• EPS: $7.19 (estimates $7.08)

Stay on this page – we will continue pushing out new updates and analysis. 

We are just minutes away from the 4 p.m. ET closing bell. Netflix’s earnings should come in shortly after the close.

In fact, last quarter its numbers were released at about 4:02 p.m. ET.

As a reminder, these are Wall Street’s expectations.

• Revenue: $11.06 billion
• EPS (Normalized): $7.09
• Cash from Operations: $2.28 billion

And full-year estimates are currently set at:

• 2025 Revenue: $44.50 billion
• 2025 EPS: $25.79

Earlier in this live blog we detailed Bernstein raising their price target on Netflix to $1,390 this morning. Let’s take a look at some other recent Wall Street chatter around the company.

• On July 15th there were two Wall Street calls on the company. Loop Capital raised their price target to $1,150 from a prior target of $1,000, but maintained a hold rating on the company. While Loop is extremely bullish on Netflix, they cited valuation concerns with the company trading near 50-times earnings.
• The other July 15th call saw BMO Capital raise their price target on the company to $1,425 from a prior target of $1,200. The success of ‘Squid Games 3’ contributed to the bank raising their target on the stock.

Netflix shares have been rising all trading day and are now up 1.9% with about 15 minutes left in the trading day.

As a reminder, we will be providing live updates the moment Netflix’s earnings hit he wires. Simply stay on this page and updates should push out automatically once Netflix’s earnings are released.

Prediction markets have seen about $115,000 bet on Netflix’s Q2 earnings call.

Some notable bets that are available on Polymarket:

• Netflix to Mention AI/Artificial Intelligence 7+ Times: Currently trading at 32%
• Netflix to use the Word ‘Recession’ on its Conference Call: Currently at 26%
• The Company Saying Either ‘Crypto’ or ‘Bitcoin’ in its Call: Just 6% odds