Final Reaction
Live Blog Update #7 Published
← Back to Full Coverage: Live: JOBY Earnings Tonight- Can It Stay Hot?
After a drastic drop immediatly after earnings, JOBY has been gaining momentum and only down 3.12% now. However, the quarter didn’t inspire any confidence for a stock that has been soaring over the past year.
| Period | EPS Estimate | EPS Actual | Revenue Estimate | Revenue Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 25 | –$0.20 | –$0.41 ❌ | $59.6K | $15K ❌ |
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🔻 Sentiment: Weak — stock repriced post-rally as cash burn and timelines came into focus
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🧭 Focus Ahead: FAA TIA in 2025, Blade close, U.S. DoD demos in H2
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📆 Next Catalyst: Final certification phase + first delivery to Dubai
All Updates from Live Coverage
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EPS miss due to non-cash losses: $40.3M in stock issuance, $126M warrant revaluation
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Adj. EBITDA loss widened to –$131.6M (vs. –$107.2M YoY)
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Dubai air taxi campaign completed with real-world aircraft
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First FAA-conforming aircraft assembled — key 2025 target
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Blade acquisition adds launchpad for 2026 urban ops
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L3Harris program deepens military dual-use narrative
Execution was strong, but JOBY remains valuation-sensitive given no near-term revenue lift or commercial flight date.
| Area | Q2 2025 Status |
|---|---|
| FAA Certification | 70% complete (Joby side), 53% FAA side |
| Dubai Launch Prep | 21 full-transition test flights completed |
| Aircraft Production | First FAA-conforming aircraft assembled |
| Blade Acquisition | Signed deal for NY & Europe ops |
| Defense (L3Harris) | Hybrid-electric aircraft program launched |
| Cash Balance | $991M |
No formal financial guidance — business remains in pre-revenue milestone phase
This quarter showcased operational progress — FAA cert, Dubai test flights, defense contracts — but investors wanted more tangible revenue clarity. With EPS missing by a wide margin and no material new commercial deals announced, JOBY’s red-hot YTD rally ran out of fuel post-print.
“Regulatory progress is unlocking global access. Our commercialization strategy is unfolding, and we’re scaling production to meet real demand.”
— JoeBen Bevirt, CEO
The team emphasized production ramp (Marina/Dayton), Blade acquisition, Dubai success, and DoD collaboration — but avoided putting dates on initial passenger service.
While Joby hit impressive operational milestones this quarter — including Dubai test flights, FAA certification progress, and the Blade acquisition — the sharp EPS miss and minimal revenue signal continued distance from commercial scale. The market’s reaction reflects fatigue with milestone-only updates amid pre-revenue status.
| Metric | Actual | Estimate | Beat/Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | –$0.41 | –$0.20 | ❌ Miss |
| Revenue | $15,000 | $59,600 | ❌ Miss |
It’s a good day for tech stocks in general; the Nasdaq is up 1.2%. Yet, shares of Joby Aviation are down 3.1%.
It’s worth noting that Archer Aviation is also down about 3.9%, so it might be money moving out of pre-revenue companies in the space. We’ll see if the drop today is just a blip or something concerning before the company announces earnings tonight.
JOBY has missed EPS estimates in all four prior quarters, but price reaction has generally been positive. The stock tends to move on regulatory and milestone updates rather than financials.
| Quarter | EPS Surprise | 1-Day Move | 7-Day Move | 14-Day Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | –7.05% | +3.58% | +15.11% | +32.71% |
| Q4 2024 | –0.76% | +0.75% | –1.19% | –3.13% |
| Q3 2024 | –10.32% | +0.59% | +13.02% | +57.79% |
| Q2 2024 | –1.46% | +5.91% | +4.89% | +0.61% |
Joel South covers large-cap stocks, dividend investing, and major market trends, with a focus on earnings analysis, valuation, and turning complex data into actionable insights for investors.
He brings more than 15 years of experience as an investor and financial journalist, including 12 years at The Motley Fool, where he served as an investment analyst, Bureau Chief, and later led the Fool.com investing news desk. He has also co-hosted an investing podcast and appeared across TV and radio discussing market trends.