Live: Will Affirm Holdings (AFRM) Keep Soaring After Earnings?
Key Points
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Consensus expects Q4 revenue of ~$837M (+27% YoY) and EPS of $0.43 vs. –$0.14 last year.
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0% APR promotions driving GMV growth, powering Affirm Card adoption and merchant loyalty.
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Shares remain highly volatile post-earnings, with moves ranging from –14% to +32% in the past year.
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Q4 Conference Call Starts at 5 PM EST
Sentiment check-up
Results vs. Setup
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Q4: Rev $876M vs. ~$837M ✅; GAAP EPS ≈ $0.20 (not directly comparable to Street “normalized EPS”).
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FY26 guide implies ~$3.86B revenue at 8.4% of GMV on >$46B GMV → essentially inline with ~$3.89B Street.
Sentiment bullets:
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Bullish: Growth + profitability; Card/D2C flywheel; credit/funding solid.
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Neutral: FY26 revenue take still tied to GMV/0% mix assumptions.
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Bearish: EPS comparability noise; rising 0% mix can cap RLTC % of GMV.
What Changed This Quarter
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Return to GAAP profitability: Net income $69M.
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Outlook pins FY26 to >26% adj. op margin and >6% GAAP op margin.
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Card flywheel materially faster: GMV +132%, attach 10%, in-store spend +187%.
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0% APR mix rising; merchant-funded share ~95% at integrated merchants.
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Convertible note buyback authorization of up to $200M (remaining $174M).
Key Operating Highlights
| KPI | YoY | Why it matters | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GMV | $10.4B | +43% | Demand breadth; scale for network effects. |
| Revenue | $876M | +33% | Growth across interest, network, servicing, loan sales. |
| RLTC (non-GAAP) | $425M | +37% | Unit economics; margin pool for profitability. |
| Adj. Op Income Margin | 27% | +4 pp | Efficiency gains and operating leverage. |
| Affirm Card GMV | $1.2B | +132% | D2C flywheel; 2.3M active cardholders; attach rate 10%. |
| 0% APR momentum | Merchants > 25k; 0% APR GMV +93% | — | Mix tailwind; merchant-funded offers. |
| Credit quality | 30+ dpd −15 bps QoQ | — | Discipline maintained while scaling. |
| Funding capacity | $26.1B | ↑ seq. | Supports >$60B annual GMV; ABS/forward-flow upsizes. |
Numbers Are In
Affirm is down slightly after-hours (down 1.11%) with a revenue beat but missing on EPS. Lets get to the numbers:
| Metric | Actual | Consensus | Beat/Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $876M | ~$837M | ✅ Beat |
| EPS (GAAP, Diluted) | $0.20 | ~$0.43 (non-GAAP est.) | ❌ Miss |
| Adj. Operating Income | $237M (27% margin) | n/a | – |
Affirm delivered a strong top-line and profitability milestone: revenue up +33% YoY to $876M, GMV up +43% to $10.4B, and net income positive $69M vs. a loss last year . Active consumers rose +24% to 23M, with Affirm Card GMV more than doubling (+132%). Credit quality held steady, with 30+ day delinquencies improving 15bps QoQ .
How Affirm Performed After Recent Quarterly Earnings
On average over the past year, Affirm stock has increased by 18.64% in the first week after an earnings release.
| Quarter | EPS Surprise | 1-Day Move | 7-Day Move | 14-Day Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | –96.9% | –14.47% | –4.70% | –4.07% |
| Q2 2025 | +75.2% | +21.81% | +31.14% | –0.06% |
| Q1 2025 | +113.1% | –4.73% | +27.20% | +40.13% |
| Q4 2024 | +44.1% | +31.92% | +20.87% | +40.22% |
Affirm Holdings (Nasdaq: AFRM) will report fiscal Q4 2025 earnings after the close. The buy-now, pay-later (BNPL) leader has been leaning into 0% APR financing campaigns, which CEO Max Levchin calls a “brand halo” that deepens merchant partnerships and expands card adoption. But the strategy has weighed on profitability — AFRM missed Q3 EPS by a wide margin despite record revenue. With March GMV growth running at +40% YoY, investors tonight want to see if Affirm can deliver sustainable profitability while scaling partnerships with Costco, Walmart, and Shopify.
What to Expect When Affirm Reports Tonight
Wall Street consensus for fiscal Q4 2025:
- Revenue: $837.1 million
- EPS (Normalized): $0.43
- FY 2025 Revenue: $3.18 billion
- FY 2025 EPS: $1.99
- FY 2026 Revenue: $3.89 billion
- FY 2026 EPS: $2.44
That implies +27% YoY revenue growth for Q4, with EPS swinging from a loss last year to strong profitability.
Key Areas to Watch
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0% APR Promotions & Merchant Adoption- Merchants leaned heavily into 0% financing in Q3, boosting Affirm’s GMV. Levchin emphasized it as Affirm’s strongest card-acquisition channel despite thinner margins.
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Affirm Card Scaling- Card adoption continues to climb; 0% promotions bring in prime-quality users, strengthening Affirm’s long-term LTV economics.
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Credit Quality & Funding Mix- Delinquencies remain low, with prepayments ticking higher — a positive credit signal. CFO Rob O’Hare highlighted Affirm’s ability to quickly adjust underwriting in stress scenarios.
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Major Retail Partnerships (Costco, Walmart, Shopify)- Costco launched as a partner in Q3; Shopify renewed through 2030 with no concessions; Walmart remains active, cementing distribution strength.
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International Expansion via Adyen- U.K. rollout to follow Canada beta with Shopify, enabled by Adyen’s payment rails for faster merchant integration.
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