Is the fintech lending sector finally waking up? Upstart Holdings (NASDAQ:UPST) stock surged 14% today, rising from $29.53 to $33.63 in Wednesday’s session. Meanwhile, Affirm Holdings (NASDAQ:AFRM) stock climbed 7%, moving from $55.82 to $59.66.
The two moves together suggest something broader than a single-stock catalyst. Both names have been under significant pressure in 2026, and today’s rally looks like a coordinated fintech re-rating as investors reassess beaten-down growth names. It’s a pattern we’ve been watching across high-beta sectors, similar to the renewed momentum seen in other oversold growth stocks like Tesla after its recent UBS upgrade.
Both stocks remain deeply negative year-to-date. UPST is down 24% year-to-date, while AFRM is down 20% year-to-date. Today’s moves are a meaningful reversal of that recent momentum.
Upstart: AI-Driven Growth and a Fresh Leadership Chapter
Upstart’s rally reflects investor optimism built on a genuinely strong fundamental story. The company uses AI-driven lending models to assess credit risk, differentiating it from traditional FICO-based lenders, and the results have been remarkable.
In Q4 2025, Upstart’s revenue rose 31% year-over-year to $296 million, beating estimates by 9%. Loan originations surged 86% to 455,788 transactions, with 91% fully automated. For the full year, Upstart generated $1.044 billion in revenue, up 54% year-over-year, and swung to a GAAP net income of $53.6 million from a loss of $128.58 million in 2024.
Outgoing Upstart CEO Dave Girouard noted in the earnings release, “In 2025, we grew originations 86% and revenues 64% while growing headcount just 18%.” That kind of operating leverage is exactly what growth investors want to see. Looking ahead, Upstart guided for approximately $1.4 billion in total revenue in 2026 with a roughly 21% adjusted EBITDA margin.
There’s also a leadership transition adding to the narrative. Upstart co-founder Paul Gu is set to become CEO on May 1. His 912,702-share equity grant on February 28 signals strong alignment with shareholders heading into the role. High insider ownership is viewed as a bullish signal by investors who see it as management putting skin in the game.
Affirm: BNPL Momentum and a Catalyst on the Horizon
Affirm’s 7% gain today is backed by a compelling combination of strong recent results and an upcoming investor catalyst. Citi added an “upside 90-day catalyst watch” on Affirm stock with a Buy rating and a $100 price target, citing confidence ahead of the company’s investor forum. Citi expects Affirm to set a medium-term revenue growth outlook of at least 20%.
The underlying business supports that optimism. In Q2 fiscal 2026, Affirm reported revenue of $1.123 billion, up 30% year-over-year, beating estimates by 6%. Gross merchandise volume surged 36% to $13.8 billion, while total transactions grew 44% to 54.9 million. Active consumers rose 23% to 25.8 million, with transactions per active consumer up 20% to 6.4.
Affirm CEO Max Levchin framed the competitive opportunity sharply, stating, “Consumers aren’t avoiding credit. They’re avoiding credit that profits from their confusion.” He added that Affirm grew more than 5x the growth rate of overall U.S. credit card spend in 2025. For the full fiscal year 2026, Affirm guided for revenue of $4.086 to $4.146 billion and GMV of $48.30 to $48.85 billion.
The Affirm 2026 Investor Forum is planned for May 12, and the market appears to be pricing in positive news ahead of that event. The consensus reflects broad support: 22 analysts currently rate Affirm stock a Buy, with a consensus price target of $79.70.
What to Watch
For Upstart stock, Watch for whether the stock can hold above the $33 level into the close. The May 1 CEO transition to Paul Gu is the next meaningful event that could shape sentiment.
For Affirm, the May 12 investor forum is the key date. That’s where management could set medium-term growth targets and potentially unlock further re-rating. No matter how you slice it, both names are telling the same story today: fintech lending may finally be finding its footing.
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