Markets often rally in anticipation of rate cuts but then decline when the actual rate cuts are implemented. J.P. Morgan’s trading desk recently warned that despite stocks setting “more than 20 all-time highs this year,” the Federal Reserve’s next rate cut “threatens to curb investors’ zeal” through a potential “sell the news” drop. The S&P 500 is up almost 33% from its lows in April and is up nearly 13% for 2025. Most mutual funds end their respective fiscal years on October 31 or at the end of the following month, November 30, and distribute their net realized capital gains to shareholders in November and December. This often requires some serious prior selling as portfolio managers prepare for the upcoming year and shift positions to rebalance.
One item that we have been examining, in addition to the seasonal data, which indicates that September is almost always the worst month for stocks, is the market-capitalization-to-gross-domestic-product ratio, a stock market indicator favored by Warren Buffett. Currently, the U.S. market cap-to-GDP ratio, commonly referred to as the Buffett Indicator, has reached an all-time high, surpassing 217% as of early September 2025, indicating significant market overvaluation according to historical interpretations of the metric. The ratio, which compares the total value of the stock market to the country’s economic output, has not been this high in history. While this does not necessarily mean a market crash is imminent, it does suggest that current valuations are incredibly extended.
We screened the J.P. Morgan equity research database, looking for companies that are highly stable, pay reliable dividends, and operate in sectors that tend to perform well during market corrections, such as health care, utilities, and consumer staples.
Why do we recommend J.P. Morgan stocks?
J.P. Morgan is one of the acknowledged leaders in the investment landscape on Wall Street and worldwide. The firm’s top-notch research department continues to provide institutional and high-net-worth clients with the best ideas across the investment spectrum and is likely to do so for years to come.
Energy Transfer
Energy Transfer L.P. (NYSE: ET) is one of North America’s largest and most diversified midstream energy companies and has a solid 7.46% dividend. This top master limited partnership is a safe option for investors seeking energy exposure and income, as the company pays a substantial distribution. It owns and operates one of the largest and most diversified portfolios of energy assets in the United States, with a strategic footprint in all the major domestic production basins.
The company is a publicly traded limited partnership with core operations that include:
- Complementary natural gas midstream, intrastate, and interstate transportation and storage assets
- Crude oil, natural gas liquids (NGL), and refined product transportation and terminalling assets
- NGL fractionation
- Various acquisition and marketing assets
Following the acquisition of Enable Partners in December 2021, Energy Transfer owns and operates over 114,000 miles of pipelines and related assets in 41 states, spanning all major U.S. producing regions and markets. This further solidifies its leadership position in the midstream sector.
Through its ownership of Energy Transfer Operating, formerly known as Energy Transfer Partners, the company also owns Lake Charles LNG Company and the general partner interests, the incentive distribution rights, and 28.5 million standard units of Sunoco, as well as the public partner interests and 39.7 million standard units of USA Compression Partners.
The J.P. Morgan price target is $23.
Entergy
This energy company engages primarily in electric power production and retail distribution operations in the Deep South of the United States. The top utility stock always makes sense for conservative investors and pays a rich 2.65% dividend. Entergy Corp. (NYSE: ETR) operates in two segments.
The Utility segment generates, transmits, distributes, and sells electric power in portions of Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas, as well as the City of New Orleans. The company also distributes natural gas.
The Entergy Wholesale Commodities segment is involved in:
- The ownership, operation, and decommissioning of nuclear power plants located in the northern United States
- Sale of electric power to wholesale customers
- Provision of services to other nuclear power plant owners
- Ownership of interests in non-nuclear power plants that sell electric power to wholesale customers
The company generates electricity from various sources, including gas, nuclear, coal, hydro, and solar. It sells energy to retail power providers, utilities, electric power co-operatives, power trading organizations, and other power generation companies.
Its power plants have approximately 24,000 megawatts (MW) of electric generating capacity, which includes 5,000 MW of nuclear power.
The company delivers electricity to 3 million utility customers in Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas.
The J.P. Morgan price target for the shares is $102.
Merck
Merck & Co. Inc. (NYSE: MRK) develops and produces medicines, vaccines, biological therapies, and animal health products. Merck is not just a healthcare company but a global force in the industry. This healthcare giant is a no-brainer down over 30% over the past year while paying a solid 3.85% dividend. The company operates through two segments.
The Pharmaceutical segment offers human health pharmaceutical products in:
- Oncology
- Hospital acute care
- Immunology
- Neuroscience
- Virology
- Cardiovascular
- Diabetes
- Vaccine products, such as preventive pediatric, adolescent, and adult vaccines
The Animal Health segment discovers, develops, manufactures, and markets veterinary pharmaceuticals, vaccines, health management solutions and services, as well as digitally connected identification, traceability, and monitoring products.
Merck serves:
- Drug wholesalers
- Retailers
- Hospitals
- Government agencies
- Managed healthcare providers, such as health maintenance organizations
- Pharmacy benefit managers and other institutions
- Physicians
- Physician distributors
- Veterinarians
- Animal producers
Merck’s growth is a result of its efforts and strategic collaborations. The company works with AstraZeneca, Bayer, Eisai, Ridgeback Biotherapeutics, and Gilead Sciences to jointly develop and commercialize long-acting treatments for HIV, demonstrating a commitment to innovation and growth.
J.P. Morgan has a $120 price objective.
Mondelez
This consumer staples giant is always a safe idea when the going gets tough, especially with a 3.03% dividend. Mondelez International Inc. (NASDAQ: MDLZ) is a snack company. The company’s core business is the manufacture and sale of chocolate, biscuits, and baked snacks.
The company also has additional businesses in adjacent, locally relevant categories, including:
- Gum and candy
- Cheese
- Grocery
- Powdered beverages
Its portfolio includes global and local brands such as Oreo, Ritz, LU, Clif Bar, and Tate’s Bake Shop biscuits and baked snacks, as well as Cadbury Dairy Milk, Milka, and Toblerone chocolate.
Mondelez International segments include Latin America, AMEA, Europe, and North America. It sells its products in over 150 countries and has operations in approximately 80 countries, including 147 principal manufacturing and processing facilities across 46 countries.
The company sells its products to:
- Supermarket chains
- Wholesalers
- Supercenters
- Club stores
- Mass merchandisers
- Distributors
- Convenience stores
- Gasoline stations
- Drug stores
- Value stores
- Retail food outlets
The J.P. Morgan price target is set at $75.
W.P. Carey
W. P. Carey Inc. (NYSE: WPC) ranks among the largest net lease REITs with a well-diversified portfolio of high-quality, operationally critical commercial real estate. It pays a generous 5.16% dividend that investors will appreciate as interest rates decline. W.P. Carey ranks among the largest net lease REITs, with a well-diversified portfolio of high-quality, operationally critical commercial real estate. This portfolio comprises approximately 1,600 net lease properties covering 178 million square feet, as well as 66 self-storage operating properties, as of June 30, 2025.
With offices in New York, London, Amsterdam, and Dallas, the company remains focused on investing primarily in single-tenant, industrial, warehouse, and retail properties in the United States and northern and western Europe under long-term net leases with built-in rent escalations.
J.P. Morgan has a $68 price target for the shares.
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