Live: Will Rivian Smash Q4 Earnings tonight?
Quick Read
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Rivian (RIVN) delivered 42,247 vehicles for full year 2025. This represents an 18% year-over-year decline. This live blog will be following Rivian’s earnings which will hit newswires after the bell. Simply stay on this page and new updates will post automatically.
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Rivian stock dropped 27.78% year to date after a major recall and UBS downgrade to Sell.
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The R2 platform targets initial deliveries in H1 2026 as Rivian’s mass-market play.
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Live Updates
Little Rivian Movement During Conference Call
The Rivian call is still ongoing and there’s been little movement during it, with shares sitting up 17% after-hours.
Most of Wall Street’s questions have focused on when the R2 will begin scaling up. There was quite a bit of technical difficulties, which made following the call a little difficult.
One important note is that Rivian will be releasing significantly more details around the R2 on March 12th. If you’re a Rivian investor, make sure you’ve got that date circled.
Rivian's Call Starts at 5 p.m. ET
Rivian shares are up more than 14% after-hours, but the company’s conference call could still change sentiment. It begins at 5 p.m. ET and you can register to listen here.
We’ll be on the call and will post updates if anything material is said. The best way to make sure you don’t miss anything: leave this page open and new updates will post automatically.
Rivian's Current Technicals
Rivian entered tonight’s earnings report with neutral technical momentum, as RSI sits at 37.44 — well below overbought territory and suggesting room for further upside. The stock has recovered from deeply oversold levels of 22.23 on February 5, marking a 15.2-point RSI gain in just six trading days.
After earnings, RIVN currently trades at $16.01, positioned between its 50-day moving average of $17.67 and 200-day moving average of $14.83.
With a beta of 1.766, Rivian typically experiences outsized moves on earnings. We’ll see if there’s any more movements before trading opens tomorrow. Shares of Rivian are currently up 14.4%.
Rivian on the R2
Here’s what Rivian had to say about the R2 in its release:
“Progress on the manufacturing launch of R2 remains on track with the first customer deliveries expected in the second quarter of 2026. In mid-January, Rivian marked a key step with the completion of its first R2 manufacturing validation builds using production tools and processes at its plant in Normal, Illinois. R2’s launch variant will be a well-equipped Dual-Motor AWD Vehicle. The company expects to provide additional product and line-up details on March 12.”
Full Guidance
Here’s more details on Rivian’s guidance:
Shares Now up 12.5%
Rivian shares are continuing to rally after-hours, now up about 12.5%.
Questions We Ask Wall Street to Ask About on Tonight's Call
Tonight’s Q4 earnings call will test whether Rivian can sustain momentum toward profitability while proving the R2 launch remains on track. Analysts will likely press management on:
Top Questions Expected
- R2 Production Timeline: With first-half 2026 production targeted, investors need confirmation on equipment installation and whether supply chain issues could delay launch
- Path to Positive Cash Flow: After burning $526 million in Q2, when does management project sustainable positive free cash flow?
- Gross Margin Trajectory: Can Rivian maintain the improvement seen in Q1’s $206 million gross profit?
- Volkswagen Partnership Progress: Updates on the $5.8 billion joint venture and milestone achievements
Red flags to watch: Any hedging on R2 timing, increased capex guidance, or weakening gross margins.
The bottom line is that Rivian’s strong vehicle guidance points to R2 being on track, so it should be an optimstic call.
2026 Delivery Guidance Beats
More good news for Rivian investors – guidance of 62,000 to 67,000 vehicle deliveries in 2026 beats estimates that were closer to 63,000.
Rivian Earnings Are Out: Here are the Most Important Figures
Rivian’s earnings were just released and here are the most need-to-know figures:
- EPS:$-.54
- Revenue: $1.29 billion
As a reminder, here’s what Wall Street expected:
- EPS: -$.67
- Revenue: $1.263 billion
Shares have immediately spiked 4% after the release.
Earnings Expected Shortly After the Bell
We expect Rivian earnings to drop shortly after the closing bell at 4 p.m. ET today, so investors shouldn’t have to wait long to see Wall Street’s reaction.
As a reminder, we’ll begin posting news and analysis the moment Rivian’s earnings drop. To receive them, simply stay on this page and new updates will post automatically.
Prediction Markets Give Rivian a 64% Chance to Beat Earnings Tonight
Polymarket has odds up on Rivian’s earnings, and they imply a 64% chance to beat earnings tonight.
However, it should be noted that Polymarket is using an ($.80) number for Rivian’s earnings while most data providers list Wall Street estimates at closer to ($.67).
Overall, Wall Street expects 2025 revenue of $5.36 billion against a larger target of $6.796 billion in 2026.
That’s why management commentary will be so critical tonight, expectations are very high for next year with the launch of the R2.
Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ: RIVN | RIVN Price Prediction) reports fourth quarter and full year 2025 earnings tonight after market close. After a volatile stretch marked by recall headlines, analyst downgrades, and a sharp stock decline, investors are looking for clarity on execution and the path forward.
Earnings Expectations
| Metric | Q4 2025 Estimate | YoY Growth | FY 2025 Estimate |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (Loss) | ($.67) | N/M | ($2.59) |
| Revenue | $1.263 | N/A | (.$67) |
Wall Street is focused on vehicle delivery numbers and whether Rivian can show progress toward positive gross margins. The company delivered 42,247 vehicles for the full year, an 18% year-over-year decline attributed to softer EV market conditions and the expiration of federal tax credits.
Last Quarter’s Mixed Results
In Q3 2025, Rivian reported EPS of -$0.65, beating the estimate of -$0.74 by 12.16%. That marked a recovery from Q2’s significant miss, when the company posted -$0.97 EPS against a -$0.66 estimate.
The stock has struggled since. Shares are down 27.78% year to date and 24.49% over the past month, trading at $14.23. A 12.8% drop in mid-January followed news of a major recall, softer 2025 guidance, and a UBS downgrade to Sell.
What I’m Watching Tonight
The R2 platform is the make-or-break story. Rivian has begun producing manufacturing validation units for its mid-size SUV, targeting initial deliveries in H1 2026. Any delay or lack of clarity on pre-order demand will hurt sentiment. The R2 is positioned as Rivian’s mass-market play, and execution here determines whether the company can scale profitably.
Gross margin trajectory is critical. Last quarter showed improvement, but the company needs to demonstrate a clear path to sustained positive gross margins. I’ll be listening for updates on cost reduction initiatives and how the $5.8 billion Volkswagen joint venture is progressing.
Cash burn remains a concern. Morningstar has flagged projected negative free cash flow for several years, and investors need to see discipline in capital allocation. The recall of R1T and R1S models adds uncertainty around near-term costs and production capacity.
Insider activity has been overwhelmingly negative. CEO RJ Scaringe sold 69,795 shares across six transactions between November and January, with sales ranging from $15.11 to $21.43 per share. CFO Claire McDonough disposed of 59,428 shares in December. No insiders have made discretionary purchases at market prices in recent months.
This Quarter Sets the Tone
Rivian needs to show it can execute on R2, control costs, and stabilize delivery trends. The company has the capital backing from Volkswagen and a differentiated product, but the path to profitability remains long. If management can provide a credible timeline for gross margin improvement and R2 ramp, sentiment could stabilize. If execution concerns persist, the stock will likely remain under pressure.
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