The Nvidia-China dance continues
Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA | NVDA Price Prediction) shares jumped 9.11% over the past week on signals that Washington may ease export restrictions on older AI chips bound for China. The stock closed at $190.05 on February 11, building momentum ahead of…
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Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA | NVDA Price Prediction) shares jumped 9.11% over the past week on signals that Washington may ease export restrictions on older AI chips bound for China. The stock closed at $190.05 on February 11, building momentum ahead of Q4 earnings on February 25.
The potential policy shift matters because Nvidia’s H20 chip, designed specifically for the Chinese market, has been effectively shut out. The Commerce Secretary confirmed strict U.S. licensing terms for H200 AI chip exports to China, and Q2 FY26 results showed zero H20 sales to China due to export restrictions. That’s billions in revenue left on the table for a company trading at 46.68x trailing earnings with a $4.63 trillion market cap.
If restrictions ease on prior-generation chips, Nvidia recaptures a massive addressable market without cannibalizing its Blackwell architecture sales to U.S. hyperscalers. CEO Jensen Huang has been clear about extraordinary demand for next-gen products, and older chips would provide significant margin expansion. China revenue would be pure margin expansion.
The timing is strategic. Big tech is pouring nearly $700 billion into AI capital expenditures, and analysts estimate Nvidia could capture 40-50% of that spending. Meanwhile, competitors like Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) posted $10.30 billion in Q4 2025 revenue, up 34.5% year-over-year, proving the semiconductor AI wave has room for multiple winners even with export controls in place.
The potential policy change could add $5-10 billion in incremental annual revenue to a company analysts have pegged at a $253.79 price target. If Washington green-lights older chips for China, the February 25 earnings call will provide clarity on management’s outlook for China market access.
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