Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ:PLTR | PLTR Price Prediction) dropped 3.3% this week, closing at $131.41 on Friday. That extends a brutal year-to-date decline of 26%, despite blowout earnings less than two weeks ago.
While the S&P 500 dipped just 1.3% this week, Palantir is caught between a wave of AI momentum and software sector panic. Three storylines explain what’s happening.
The SaaSpocalypse Narrative Hits Software Stocks
Software stocks are experiencing what some call a “SaaSpocalypse” as fears mount that AI programs will enable companies to build their own software, minimizing the need for traditional vendors. The iShares Tech-Expanded Software ETF dropped over 3% on February 11, with Palantir caught in the selloff despite positioning as an essential AI infrastructure provider rather than traditional SaaS.
The panic stems from the “Anthropic shock”, with AI potentially cutting delivery timelines and pressuring traditional outsourcing models. Yet Palantir’s business model differs fundamentally. While legacy software vendors face disruption, Palantir provides the AI platform that enables the disruption. Its 82% gross margin and 36% profit margin reflect a company selling AI infrastructure, not commoditized software.
Still, sector-wide selling pressure explains why Palantir trades at $131 despite strong revenue growth in Q4. When software funds panic-sell, differentiation gets ignored. Everyone has known Palantir traded at expensive levels, and ‘multiple contraction’ was a threat. That time has now arrived.
Insider Selling Accelerates Through the Decline
Every single insider transaction from November 15, 2025 through February 13, 2026 was a sale. Zero buying. CEO Alex Karp sold shares as recently as February 2 at prices between $147 and $151. COO Shyam Sankar liquidated 149,872 shares on November 20 immediately after receiving them.
Director Alexander Moore executed 16 separate transactions on January 2 alone, selling across a price range of $167 to $181. The selling is almost certainly a part of systematic portfolio reduction rather than opportunistic selling. When insiders sell at both $181 peaks in January and $147 lows in February, they’re not timing the market. They’re exiting.
Still, it will be interesting if we begin seeing open market buys with Palantir’s price down. In the past 12 months, insiders had 43 open market buys across 133 insider trades total. If insiders begin buying, it could be a powerful catalyst for shifting sentiment.
Customer Wins Show AIP Adoption Is Real
OneMedNet reported $2.79 million in 2025 bookings, a 4.1x increase year-over-year, driven by Palantir-powered subscription offerings. Innodata (NASDAQ:INOD) signed a deal for high-quality training data and multimodal AI engineering. FTAI Aviation (NYSE:FTAI) partnered with Palantir for a multi-year AI operations platform supporting data center power solutions.
These aren’t vanity partnerships. They’re evidence that Palantir’s Artificial Intelligence Platform is becoming infrastructure for enterprise AI deployments. Morningstar (NASDAQ:MORN) raised its fair value estimate to $150 per share on February 9, citing the company’s “unique ontological framework” and strong U.S. commercial adoption as justification for a “narrow moat” rating.
The tension is obvious: fundamentals point up while price action points down. Palantir demonstrated strong customer adoption and contract growth in Q4. Yet the stock sits 26% below year-end levels, trading closer to its 52-week low of $66 than its 52-week high of $207 on a relative basis. Software sector panic, relentless insider selling, and a 205x P/E ratio create a valuation standoff that strong customer wins haven’t yet resolved.
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