Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC) had a rough week. The stock dropped 7.51% while the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) dipped just 1.29% and the semiconductor sector rallied 1.76%. At $46.79, Intel is still up 27% year-to-date and nearly 94% over the past year, but this week’s selloff raises questions about whether the turnaround narrative is stalling.
Three storylines explain what’s happening.
AMD Is Taking Share Everywhere That Matters
Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD | AMD Price Prediction) closed 2025 with 35.4% desktop CPU revenue share. More concerning for Intel: AMD is nearing 30% share in servers, the market that matters for margins and growth. AMD’s quarterly earnings growth hit 217% year-over-year while Intel posted a 72% earnings decline.
One major problem: AMD is better meeting surging data center demand for CPUs, while Intel has run out of inventory for chips in the most demand. AMD saw Data Center sales up 39% and client sales up 34%.
That’s in stark contrast to Intel, where Client sales were down 7% from last year while Data Center sales grew 9%. Intel is betting on its Foundry for a broader rebound, but the recent round of earnings once again highlighted the recent divergence between the two company’s results.
India Slapped Intel With an Antitrust Fine
The Competition Commission of India fined Intel ₹27.38 crore (roughly $3.3 million) for running a discriminatory warranty policy that lasted eight years. The policy required warranty claims only for products purchased from authorized Indian distributors, unlike Intel’s global policy. It’s a small fine in absolute terms, but another regulatory headache for a company already fighting on multiple fronts.
Analyst Consensus Says Hold, Not Buy
Intel’s analyst consensus rating is Reduce, with an average price target of $45.74. That’s below where the stock closed this week. Out of 47 analysts covering Intel, 32 rate it a Hold, with only 9 Buy or Strong Buy ratings. Compare that to AMD’s 41 Buy or Strong Buy ratings out of 53 analysts, and you see the sentiment gap.
Intel’s forward P/E of 101x shows the market is pricing in a recovery, but analysts aren’t convinced it’s coming fast enough. Intel’s guidance for Q1 2026 calls for revenue of $11.7 billion to $12.7 billion with $0.00 EPS. That’s not a typo. The company is guiding to breakeven earnings while trading at a triple-digit forward multiple.
Intel’s turnaround story depends on the foundry business ramping, the 18A process node delivering, and AI products gaining traction. I’ve spoken positively about Intel in recent episodes of the AI Investor Podcast by 24/7 Wall St.
The company has rode a rising tide of optimism that booming CPU demand will help the company rebound, and it increasingly looks likely that companies like Apple and NVIDIA will move some production (such as advanced packaging) to Intel foundries. Still, as this week shows, stock optimism is facing off against some near-term harsh realities.
Intel will have to begin delivering – whether through actual customer announcements or better meeting CPU Data Center demand – in the second half of 2026, or shares risk a sharp reversal.
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