Stock Market Live February 20, 2026: S&P 500 (SPY) Sinks on US GDP Numbers

Markets are back in the red zone.

The S&P 500 is down 0.27%, or by 18 points. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is down 0.22%, or by $1.54.

The Dow is down 0.18%, or by 89 points. The Nasdaq is down by 0.39%, or by 96 points. Oil is down fractionally, even with speculation of a potential strike on Iran. Bitcoin is up slightly at $67,924, as gold prices rally $66 higher to $5,044. Silver is now up to $80.76.

U.S. GDP Missed Estimates

Not helping: US GDP missed estimates, printing 1.4%. That was below the 2.5% estimate, thanks in part to the government shutdown. For the full year 2025, US GDP grew at a pace of 2.2%, down from 2.4% year over year.

“The government shutdown hurt growth at the end of 2025. The economy will likely bounce back in early 2026, but it isn’t harmless to do prolonged shutdowns,” said Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, as quoted by CNBC. “Overall, the U.S. economy was resilient in 2025 despite many headwinds. Solid consumption and the AI boom kept the economy growing.”

$10,000 Gold?

With gold, analysts at SAMCO Securities say gold could test $7,000, driven by further geopolitical uncertainties, sky-high deficits, central bank demand, and the real interest rate environment, as noted by Business Standard.

Others, according to SBG Securities, are calling for $10,000 gold based on monetary policy, geopolitical issues, and a weaker U.S. dollar, as noted by Investing.com. They added that a key driver of gold prices depends on the outlook for interest rate cuts. Markets are currently pricing in two cuts this year, but the firm seems to see room for more, noting that “three cuts could push gold to $7,000 by year-end (SBG’s base case) and a more dovish Fed may send gold to $10,000.”

Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research also says $10,000 is a possibility, arguing the metal is being driven by a broad “geopolitical risk-on trade,” as mentioned by Investing.com. “We are still targeting $6,000 by the end of this year and $10,000 by the end of 2029,” he added.

Nvidia Earnings Set for Next Week

Plenty of eyes will be on Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA | NVDA Price Prediction) heading into earnings next week.

For one, analysts at Citi just reiterated a buy rating on the tech giant. The firm noted that it’s recommending investors add to NVDA, as the valuation looks attractive and the stock is likely to outperform in the second half of 2026.

That’s because its status as an AI leader has made it a key bellwether for all AI stocks.

The good news is that big tech companies that operate data centers, or hyper scalers, are saying they will increase massive AI capex this year, with a good chunk of that going to AI. We also have to consider that CEO Jensen Huang has said demand for the company’s new Blackwell platform data center products was “off the charts.”

Also, as noted by analysts at Wedbush, “Looking ahead to the remainder of 2026 and into 2027, the focus is already shifting toward NVIDIA’s next milestone: the Rubin (R100) architecture.

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