AST SpaceMobile Plans No Further Convertible Notes

Here’s a big quote from AST’s conference call that will attrack attention tomorrow. The company issued guidance for not only next year, but their opportunity for 2027:

Scott Wisniewski

“As we turn the page into 2026. We see this year as an inflection point as we enter commercial service with our initial MNO partners, while also continuing to generate revenue from the commercial gateway and government strategies. Before the impact of commercial service revenue later in the year, we expect revenue to at least double versus 2025.

In fact, our 2026 expectations are further derisked given our contracted pipeline, which provides upside with additional government contract wins. 2027 will be the first full year impact of commercial service revenue as the AST space mobile cellular broadband service becomes available in some of the best markets worldwide to hundreds of millions of subscribers via a low friction service offering provided when subscriber needs it most.

We also expect government revenue to continue to multiply in 2027 with significant upside depending on certain contract outcomes. We see the opportunity in 2027 approaching $1 billion in annual revenue importantly comprised of revenue both long-term contracted or highly recurring in nature, subject to achievement of commercial and government service objectives. “

ASTS shares are now up 5%, we’re collecting some notes from their conference call and will post them shortly.

As we expected, there haven’t been any significant movement headed into AST’s call.

If you want updates from the call, simply leave this blog open and we’ll post highlights that will update automatically. 

Just note that the most material information may come during Wall Street’s questions. So we encourage you to leave this page and check back later. We’ll likely post notes through 6 p.m. ET.

AST has $3.9 billion in cash and cash equivalents after this quarter. That number has grown thanks to the $1.075 billion convertible senior note offering in February.

AST will host its conference call at 5 p.m. ET, we don’t expect any significant movement before then. 

Shares are down about 2% after-hours, a few minutes after earnings.

Some investors may be disappointed. After all, AST beat revenue expectations and is targeting 45 to 60 satellites in orbit by the end of 2026.

Yet, keep in mind that shares did rally 9.8% today headed into earnings. There was a lot of expectations of positive announcements in this release. Shares are still up about 8% from where they closed on Friday.

• Five orbital launches by the end of the first quarter
• 45-60 satellites by the end of 2026
• Bluebird 7 launchin gin March

ASTS earnings are finally out!

EPS of -$.26 are below expectations, but revenue of $54.3M is ahead of Wall Street expectations and at the high end of guidance provided by the company.

Shares are initially down slightly, -1.8%.

We haven’t seen any earnings for AST come out yet. Their investor relations page is struggling (which we’ve noted in prior live blogs following their earnings), which isn’t helping the situation.

We expected ASTS earnings any moment and will begin updating this live blog with news and analysis.

Shares of ASTS surged 9.8% today before earnings. We’ll see if that’s a ‘good omen’ for shareholders when the company reports soon. We expect earnings to hit newswires at about 4:15 p.m. ET.

As a reminder, simply leave this page open and new updates will appear automatically. 

The Bull and Bear Case Heading Into Tonight

With AST SpaceMobile’s (ASTS) Q4 results due around 4:15 p.m. ET, here is where the two sides stand on AST SpaceMobile.

Bull Case

• Satellite buildout momentum: BlueBird 6, with 10x the capacity of previous satellites, has shipped for launch, targeting 45-60 satellites deployed by end of 2026.
• Apple catalyst: Reports of iPhone 17 testing with satellite-to-cell connectivity could validate ASTS’s core technology at massive scale.
• War chest secured: A $1.075B convertible notes raise accelerated spectrum deployment.
• Stock momentum: Shares are up 211% over the past year.

Bear Case

• Consistent EPS misses: ASTS has missed most recent estimates, often by a wide margin.
• Minimal revenue: Quarterly revenue estimated around $42M against a $30B market cap.
• Insider selling: Recent insider activity trends toward net selling.
• Analyst skepticism: Scotiabank rates the stock Sell, citing Starlink competition and slow customer adoption.

We’ll know whether tonight’s earnings validate the optimism of the bulls or concern of the bears in about 30 minutes.

We’ll provide a couple more updates before AST reports earnings, but it’s worth noting that we expect their earnings at about 4:15 p.m. ET. So, if you see some stock movement right after the bell, it’s probably just noise.