A rapidly escalating military conflict in the Middle East is rattling global markets Tuesday, sending materials and mining stocks lower even as oil surges. US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran have prompted Iran’s Revolutionary Guard to declare the Strait of Hormuz closed, a critical chokepoint for global energy flows, and the conflict has now spread across multiple countries.
The paradox for investors: an energy shock lifting oil prices is simultaneously crushing the metals complex. Brent crude is surging on the news, but a surging US dollar index near three-month highs is hammering dollar-denominated commodities. Metals including gold, silver, and platinum are under significant pressure. Broad equity markets are also under pressure, with major indices declining on the session.
For Linde (NASDAQ:LIN), natural gas is a core production input, and natural gas futures are up roughly 6% today, directly threatening margins. Linde is down 1.65% so far today. For Southern Copper (NYSE:SCCO), copper is priced in dollars, and a stronger dollar directly compresses realized prices. SCCO is off $11.42, or 5.22% today. BHP Group (NYSE:BHP), exposed to copper and iron ore with China as its largest customer, is down $4.63, or 5.58% on the session as global growth fears compound dollar headwinds.
As noted in today’s Daily Profit newsletter, tariff anxiety and geopolitical tension are already weighing on markets, and this escalation adds a more acute layer of uncertainty. Federal Reserve officials have noted that geopolitical conflict of this scale heightens near-term inflation and economic uncertainty, a signal that rate cut expectations may need revision.
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