When the VIX spiked to 52.33 in April 2025, most portfolios bled. iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF (NYSEARCA:DBMF) was built precisely for that kind of environment, and the past year’s performance suggests it delivered.
What DBMF Is Actually Trying to Do
Managed futures strategies use trend-following models to go long or short across a diversified mix of asset classes, including equities, bonds, currencies, and commodities. DBMF specifically replicates the positioning of the largest managed futures hedge funds using liquid futures contracts, without the steep fees those funds charge. The goal is to generate returns that move independently of stocks and bonds, providing a genuine diversifier rather than just another correlated bet.
For retirees, the appeal is straightforward: a holding that can rise when equities fall protects the sequence-of-returns risk that makes early retirement withdrawals so dangerous. Losing a significant amount in year one of retirement is far more damaging than the same loss a decade in.
The Numbers Back the Thesis
Over the past year, DBMF returned 25.26%, meaningfully outpacing SPY’s 16.54%. That gap reflects how well trend-following strategies performed during the volatility spike of 2025, when sharp dislocations across equities, bonds, and currencies created exactly the directional trends these models are built to exploit.
That outperformance has extended into 2026. Year-to-date, DBMF is up 8.05% while SPY sits essentially flat at -0.23%, suggesting the macro environment — marked by persistent rate uncertainty and equity turbulence — continues to favor managed futures positioning.
For cost-conscious retirees evaluating the fund, DBMF carries a dividend yield that can supplement income during drawdown periods, offset in part by its 0.85% expense ratio — reasonable for an actively managed alternatives strategy but worth factoring into net return expectations.
The Tradeoffs Retirees Need to Understand
The five-year picture tells a more complicated story. Over five years, DBMF returned 53.12% versus SPY’s 80.6%. Trend-following strategies earn their keep during dislocations, not during calm bull markets. Investors who held DBMF through the quiet stretch of late 2024 and early 2025 paid an opportunity cost for that insurance.
Two other constraints matter. First, trend-following can whipsaw badly in choppy, directionless markets where no clear trends form across asset classes. Second, the fund does distribute income, but payouts can vary meaningfully depending on what the underlying futures positions are generating, making income less predictable than a bond ladder or dividend stock portfolio.
Where It Fits
The current macro backdrop, with the VIX sitting at 21.44 and rate uncertainty persisting across the Treasury market, is the kind of environment DBMF was designed to navigate. The 10-year yield has swung from 4.58% in May 2025 to as low as 3.97% in late February 2026, creating exactly the directional trends that fuel managed futures returns.
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