MasTec (MTZ) Is up 150% in a Year, and One Analyst Thinks It Has Another 17% Left to Run
MasTec (NYSE:MTZ | MTZ Price Prediction) has been one of the infrastructure sector’s standout performers over the past year, with shares up nearly 150% over the trailing 12 months and 28% year-to-date. The stock sits near its 52-week high of…
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MasTec (NYSE:MTZ | MTZ Price Prediction) has been one of the infrastructure sector’s standout performers over the past year, with shares up nearly 150% over the trailing 12 months and 28% year-to-date. The stock sits near its 52-week high of $310.36, with shares currently trading around $291.25. Most analysts carry a consensus target of $332.26, reflecting a “Moderate Buy” rating. But Jefferies has stepped well ahead of the pack, raising its price target to $348 from $271 with a Buy rating. The Street average sits meaningfully below that figure. But can MTZ realistically reach $348 by the end of 2026?
Jefferies’ $348 MTZ Prediction
Jefferies’ conviction centers on cross-segment execution and premier growth rates relative to peer averages. With management guiding for $17 billion in 2026 revenue, representing 19% growth, and adjusted EPS of $8.40, the firm sees upward estimate revisions as a durable tailwind. The record $18.96 billion 18-month backlog gives that guidance unusual credibility. As CEO Jose Mas put it on the Q4 earnings call, “I do not think we have ever been in a better position going into a year based on revenue guidance versus where we stand with backlog.”
Key Drivers of MTZ Stock Performance
- All-Segment Execution: Every business line contributed to full-year 2025 revenue of $14.299 billion, up 16.22% year-over-year. Pipeline Infrastructure surged 49.9% in Q4, while Communications grew 22.6%. MasTec’s diversification spans energy, telecom, clean energy, and power delivery across all four segments.
- Record Backlog Visibility: The 1.6x book-to-bill ratio and 33% year-over-year backlog growth provide multi-year revenue visibility. Clean Energy backlog alone is up 53% year-over-year.
- Margin Expansion Trajectory: Management is targeting margin expansion alongside revenue growth, with a midterm goal of double-digit consolidated EBITDA margins.
What Will It Take for MTZ to Reach $348?
At 78.895 million shares outstanding, a $348 price target represents a significant premium to current trading levels. Getting there requires MasTec to deliver on its $17 billion revenue and $8.40 adjusted EPS guidance, sustain backlog momentum as infrastructure spending continues, and demonstrate that margin expansion is durable rather than cyclical. The Greenlink transmission project restart in Q1 2026 and continued data center wins are near-term milestones worth watching closely.
The primary risk is tariff exposure on steel, aluminum, and solar materials, which could pressure project economics across multiple segments. Still, with unprecedented infrastructure demand, a record backlog, and four segments all growing simultaneously, Jefferies’ $348 target reflects a credible path if MasTec continues to execute on its guidance.
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Joel South covers large-cap stocks, dividend investing, and major market trends, with a focus on earnings analysis, valuation, and turning complex data into actionable insights for investors.
He brings more than 15 years of experience as an investor and financial journalist, including 12 years at The Motley Fool, where he served as an investment analyst, Bureau Chief, and later led the Fool.com investing news desk. He has also co-hosted an investing podcast and appeared across TV and radio discussing market trends.
