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Red Cat Holdings (NASDAQ:RCAT) reports fourth-quarter fiscal year 2025 results after the bell today. With shares up 114% year to date and the defense drone sector in the spotlight, this will be Red Cat’s most watched earnings yet.
What Wall Street Expects
Analysts expect the following from Red Cat:
- EPS: -$.15
- Revenue: $23.92 million
It’s the beginning of what should be a large revenue ramp for the company. While expectations for 2025 revenue are just $38.1 million, Wall Street expects the company to deliver $143 million in revenue in 2026. Earnings should stay negative (Wall Street expects a normalized loss of $.30 per share next year), but the story is clearly about Red Cat scaling several major Defense Department wins.
Consecutive Misses Set a Low Bar
The most recently reported quarter delivered EPS of -$0.16 against a consensus estimate of -$0.10. That followed a Q1 FY2025 result where reported EPS came in at -$0.27 against an estimate of -$0.10, the deepest loss in the recent period.
Red Cat has now missed consensus EPS estimates in the majority of its recent quarters. The market has largely looked past the losses, though. Shares trade near $18.16 today, up 193% over the past year. The stock’s gains have come despite ongoing net losses. As we noted earlier, the real story for Red Cat is what kind of revenue it will generate in the year ahead.
The Storylines That Matter Tonight
- Revenue trajectory: Red Cat has already provided guidance that they expect the quarter to be between $24 million and $26.5 million in revenue. The company held an ‘innovation call’ on February 27th and pointed to more guidance for the year ahead during today’s earnings. So, we should get some figures on what kind of revenue ramp Red Cat expects this year.
- Operating cash burn: Red Cat has burned $69 million – nice – in operating cash flow the past nine months. The company’s cash position has been strengthened with $283 million from the issuance of common stock, but we’ll want to see what commentary the company provides on margins for next year.
- Timing of Orders: Last quarter, Wall Street pressed on when programs would start generating revenue. For example, red cat has spoken of its unmanned surface vessels contributing a ‘robust’ revenue stream in 2026. What will the timing of that be?
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